Related papers: Prediction of random variables by excursion metric…
In this paper, we use the concept of excursion sets for the extrapolation of stationary random fields. Doing so, we define excursion sets for the field and its linear predictor, and then minimize the expected volume of the symmetric…
We focus on the problem of estimating and quantifying uncertainties on the excursion set of a function under a limited evaluation budget. We adopt a Bayesian approach where the objective function is assumed to be a realization of a Gaussian…
We develop a novel computational method for evaluating the extreme excursion probabilities arising from random initialization of nonlinear dynamical systems. The method uses excursion probability theory to formulate a sequence of Bayesian…
The excursion set theory, where density perturbations evolve stochastically with the smoothing scale, provides a method for computing the dark matter halo mass function. The computation of the mass function is mapped into the so-called…
We give an overview of the recent asymptotic results on the geometry of excursion sets of stationary random fields. Namely, we cover a number of limit theorems of central type for the volume of excursions of stationary (quasi--, positively…
Recent statistical methods fitted on large-scale GPS data can provide accurate estimations of the expected travel time between two points. However, little is known about the distribution of travel time, which is key to decision-making…
We develop a novel computational method for evaluating the extreme excursion probabilities arising for random initialization of nonlinear dynamical systems. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo or a Laplace approximation approach to…
In this paper, we consider a classic problem concerning the high excursion probabilities of a Gaussian random field $f$ living on a compact set $T$. We develop efficient computational methods for the tail probabilities $P(\sup_T f(t) > b)$…
We propose a model of random walks on weighted graphs where the weights are interval valued, and connect it to reversible imprecise Markov chains. While the theory of imprecise Markov chains is now well established, this is a first attempt…
We consider trawl processes, which are stationary and infinitely divisible stochastic processes and can describe a wide range of statistical properties, such as heavy tails and long memory. In this paper, we develop the first…
Let $X=\{X(x): x\in\mathbb{S}^N\}$ be a real-valued, centered Gaussian random field indexed on the $N$-dimensional unit sphere $\mathbb{S}^N$. Approximations to the excursion probability ${\mathbb{P}}\{\sup_{x\in\mathbb{S}^N}X(x)\ge u\}$,…
We consider random variables observed at arrival times of a renewal process, which possibly depends on those observations and has regularly varying steps with infinite mean. Due to the dependence and heavy tailed steps, the limiting…
We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…
A local projection model is defined by a set of linear regressions that account for the associations between exogenous variables and an endogenous variable observed at different time points. While it is standard practice to separately…
When a random field $(X_t, \ t\in {\mathbb R}^2)$ is thresholded on a given level $u$, the excursion set is given by its indicator $~1_{[u, \infty)}(X_t)$. The purpose of this work is to study functionals (as established in stochastic…
We consider a model for multivariate data with heavy-tailed marginal distributions and a Gaussian dependence structure. The different marginals in the model are allowed to have non-identical tail behavior in contrast to most popular…
We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with…
For certain random variables that arise as limits of functionals of random finite trees, we obtain precise asymptotics for the logarithm of the right-hand tail. Our results are based on the facts (i) that the random variables we study can…
We present ray tracing simulations combined with sets of large N-body simulations. Experiments were performed to explore, for the first time, statistical properties of fluctuations in angular separations of nearby light ray pairs (the…
Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…