Related papers: Separating internal and externally-forced contribu…
This paper estimates the two-component energy balance model as a linear state space system (EBM-SS model) using historical data. It is a joint model for the temperature in the mixed layer, the temperature in the deep ocean layer, and…
Quantifying the risk of global warming exceeding critical targets such as 2.0 K requires reliable projections of uncertainty as well as best estimates of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST). However, uncertainty bands on GMST projections…
Policy targets evolve faster than the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project cycles, complicating adaptation and mitigation planning that must often contend with outdated projections. Climate model output emulators address this gap by…
Projections of future climate change rely heavily on climate models, and combining climate models through a multi-model ensemble is both more accurate than a single climate model and valuable for uncertainty quantification. However,…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are the primary tools for investigating future Earth system states at time scales from decades to centuries, especially in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. State-of-the-art ESMs can reproduce the…
Climate change poses significant challenges for accurate climate modeling due to the complexity and variability of non-Gaussian climate systems. To address the complexities of non-Gaussian systems in climate modeling, this thesis proposes a…
Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and…
There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…
Future climate change impacts depend on temperatures not only through changes in their means but also through changes in their variability. General circulation models (GCMs) predict changes in both means and variability; however, GCM output…
Energy-Based Models (EBMs) have proven to be a highly effective approach for modelling densities on finite-dimensional spaces. Their ability to incorporate domain-specific choices and constraints into the structure of the model through…
We introduce a novel Earth-like planet surface temperature model (ESTM) for habitability studies based on the spatial-temporal distribution of planetary surface temperatures. The ESTM adopts a surface Energy Balance Model complemented by:…
We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…
Earth system models (ESMs) are the principal tools used in climate science to generate future climate projections under various atmospheric emissions scenarios on a global or regional scale. Generative deep learning approaches are suitable…
Global climate models aim to reproduce physical processes on a global scale and predict quantities such as temperature given some forcing inputs. We consider climate ensembles made of collections of such runs with different initial…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the interaction between human activities and the Earth's climate. However, the computational demands of ESMs often limit the number of simulations that can be run, hindering the…
Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the primary tool to simulate climate evolution and assess the impacts of climate change. However, they often operate at a coarse spatial resolution that limits their accuracy in reproducing local-scale…
Climate change has become a significant global concern due to its capacity to cause substantial disruption to daily life by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Given the rising trend of human interventions in…
We consider the effect of different temporal error structures on the inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity\footnote{ECS is defined as the realized equilibrium surface warming---globally-averaged surface air temperature---for a…
Stochastic schemes, designed to represent unresolved sub-grid scale variability, are frequently used in short and medium-range weather forecasts, where they are found to improve several aspects of the model. In recent years, the impact of…