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Ordinary differential equations (ODEs), via their induced flow maps, provide a powerful framework to parameterize invertible transformations for the purpose of representing complex probability distributions. While such models have achieved…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-06 Youssef Marzouk , Zhi Ren , Sven Wang , Jakob Zech

This work proposes a framework, embedded within the Performance Estimation framework (PEP), for obtaining worst-case performance guarantees on stochastic first-order methods. Given a first-order method, a function class, and a noise model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-05 Anne Rubbens , Sébastien Colla , Julien M. Hendrickx

We formulate the predicted-updates dynamic model, one of the first beyond-worst-case models for dynamic algorithms, which generalizes a large set of well-studied dynamic models including the offline dynamic, incremental, and decremental…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-11-29 Quanquan C. Liu , Vaidehi Srinivas

Recently, Neural Ordinary Differential Equations has emerged as a powerful framework for modeling physical simulations without explicitly defining the ODEs governing the system, but instead learning them via machine learning. However, the…

We propose a method for approximating solutions to optimization problems involving the global stability properties of parameter-dependent continuous-time autonomous dynamical systems. The method relies on an approximation of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-08-12 Péter Koltai , Alexander Volf

In this work we are interested in stochastic particle methods for multi-objective optimization. The problem is formulated using parametrized, single-objective sub-problems which are solved simultaneously. To this end a consensus based…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-03 Giacomo Borghi , Michael Herty , Lorenzo Pareschi

We consider the optimization of an uncertain objective over continuous and multi-dimensional decision spaces in problems in which we are only provided with observational data. We propose a novel algorithmic framework that is tractable,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Dimitris Bertsimas , Christopher McCord

A deterministic walk in a random environment can be understood as a general random process with finite-range dependence that starts repeating a loop once it reaches a site it has visited before. Such process lacks the Markov property. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-15 Ivan Matic

This paper presents a probabilistic framework to obtain both reliable and fast uncertainty estimates for predictions with Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). Our main contribution is a practical and principled combination of DNNs with sparse…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Jongseok Lee , Jianxiang Feng , Matthias Humt , Marcus G. Müller , Rudolph Triebel

Path-wise observables--functionals of stochastic trajectories--are at the heart of time-average statistical mechanics and are central to thermodynamic inequalities such as uncertainty relations, speed limits, and correlation-bounds. They…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-21 Lars Torbjørn Stutzer , Cai Dieball , Aljaž Godec

Stochastic optimal control problems have a long tradition in applied probability, with the questions addressed being of high relevance in a multitude of fields. Even though theoretical solutions are well understood in many scenarios, their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Sören Christensen , Claudia Strauch , Lukas Trottner

We study learning of continuous-time inventory dynamics under stochastic demand and quantify when structure helps or hurts forecasting of the bullwhip effect. BULL-ODE compares a fully learned Neural ODE (NODE) that models the entire…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Nachiket N. Naik , Prathamesh Dinesh Joshi , Raj Abhijit Dandekar , Rajat Dandekar , Sreedath Panat

Time series analysis has proven to be a powerful method to characterize several phenomena in biology, neuroscience and economics, and to understand some of their underlying dynamical features. Despite a plethora of methods have been…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-03-01 Andrea Santoro , Federico Battiston , Giovanni Petri , Enrico Amico

We present a novel set of rigorous and computationally efficient topology-based complexity notions that exhibit a strong correlation with the generalization gap in modern deep neural networks (DNNs). DNNs show remarkable generalization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-17 Rayna Andreeva , Benjamin Dupuis , Rik Sarkar , Tolga Birdal , Umut Şimşekli

Motivated by applications to mathematical biology, we study the averaging problem for slow-fast systems, {\em in the case in which the fast dynamics is a stochastic process with multiple invariant measures}. We consider both the case in…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-17 B. D. Goddard , M. Ottobre , K. J. Painter , I. Souttar

Probabilistic forecasting provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems by representing predictions as probability distributions rather than deterministic trajectories. However, existing forecasting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-27 Tianlin Yang , Hailiang Du , Louis Aslett

Recent advancements in Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (ST-GNNs) and Transformers have demonstrated promising potential for traffic forecasting by effectively capturing both temporal and spatial correlations. The generalization ability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-02 Hongjun Wang , Jiyuan Chen , Tong Pan , Zheng Dong , Lingyu Zhang , Renhe Jiang , Xuan Song

The rigorous linking of exact stochastic models to mean-field approximations is studied. Starting from the differential equation point of view the stochastic model is identified by its Kolmogorov equations, which is a system of linear ODEs…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2011-09-19 András Bátkai , Istvan Z. Kiss , Eszter Sikolya , Péter L. Simon

It is shown that large deviation statistical quantities of the discrete time, finite state Markov process $P_{n+1}^{(j)}=\sum_{k=1}^NH_{jk}P_n^{(k)}$, where P_n^{(j)} is the probability for the j-state at the time step n and H_{jk} is the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-13 Miki U. Kobayashi , Hirokazu Fujisaka , Syuji Miyazaki

We revisit closed-loop performance guarantees for Model Predictive Control in the deterministic and stochastic cases, which extend to novel performance results applicable to receding horizon control of Partially Observable Markov Decision…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-01 Martin A. Sehr , Robert R. Bitmead