Related papers: $u^* = \sqrt{uv}$
We introduce occupation uncertainty relations (OURs) for dynamics of a Markov process over discrete configurations. Those are lower bounds on uncertainties of system observables that are time-integrated along stochastic trajectories. The…
Inspired by the unsupervised learning or self-organization in the machine learning context, here we attempt to draw `learning curve' for the collective behavior of job-seeking `zero-intelligence' labors in successive job-hunting processes.…
Homelessness among US veterans remains a critical public health challenge, yet risk prediction offers a pathway for proactive intervention. In this retrospective prognostic study, we analyzed electronic health record (EHR) data from…
In this paper we conduct a longitudinal analysis of the structure of labour markets in the US over 7 decades of technological, economic and policy change. We make use of network science, natural language processing and machine learning to…
Federated learning is a distributed learning paradigm where multiple agents, each only with access to local data, jointly learn a global model. There has recently been an explosion of research aiming not only to improve the accuracy rates…
The mapping of populations socio-economic well-being is highly constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to…
I develop Macroeconomic Random Forest (MRF), an algorithm adapting the canonical Machine Learning (ML) tool to flexibly model evolving parameters in a linear macro equation. Its main output, Generalized Time-Varying Parameters (GTVPs), is a…
A two-component model for the evolution of real GDP per capita in the USA is presented and tested. The first component of the GDP growth rate represents an economic trend and is inversely proportional to the attained level of real GDP per…
To answer this question, we develop a new Sahm-type recession indicator that combines vacancy and unemployment data. The indicator is the minimum of the Sahm indicator -- the difference between the 3-month trailing average of the…
An annual well-being index constructed from thirteen socioeconomic factors is proposed in order to dynamically measure the mood of the US citizenry. Econometric models are fitted to the log-returns of the index in order to quantify its tail…
Distributed renewable resources owned by prosumers can be an effective way of fortifying grid resilience and enhancing sustainability. However, prosumers serve their own interests and their objectives are unlikely to align with that of…
Recommendation systems (RSs) are increasingly used to guide job seekers on online platforms, yet the algorithms currently deployed are typically optimized for predictive objectives such as clicks, applications, or hires, rather than job…
Energy supply is mandatory for the production of economic value. Nevertheless, tradition dictates that an enigmatic 'invisible hand' governs economic valuation. Physical scientists have long proposed alternative but testable energy cost…
The Fourth Industrial Revolution commonly refers to the accelerating technological transformation that has been taking place in the 21st century. Economic growth theories which treat the accumulation of knowledge and its effect on…
Peak Estimation aims to find the maximum value of a state function achieved by a dynamical system. This problem is non-convex when considering standard Barrier and Density methods for invariant sets, and has been treated heuristically by…
In recent years economics agents and systems have became more and more interacting and juxtaposed, therefore the social sciences need to rely on the studies of physical sciences to analyze this complexity in the relationships. According to…
The excessive compensation packages of CEOs of U.S. corporations in recent years have brought to the foreground the issue of fairness in economics. The conventional wisdom is that the free market for labor, which determines the pay…
Investigations of inverse statistics (a concept borrowed from turbulence) in stock markets, exemplified with filtered Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, have uncovered a novel stylized fact that the distribution of exit time…
The occupancy fraction of a graph is a (normalized) measure on the size of independent sets under the hard-core model, depending on a variable (fugacity) $\lambda.$ We present a criterion for finding the graph with minimum occupancy…
We quantify the Tariff Laffer Curve for the U.S. using a multi-sector Ricardian model calibrated to the 2025 US trade war. We find revenue-maximizing tariffs of 20--30 percent and welfare-maximizing rates of 0--10 percent. We define the…