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Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Multivariate long-term time series forecasting has been suffering from the challenge of capturing both temporal dependencies within variables and spatial correlations across variables simultaneously. Current approaches predominantly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-15 Chenheng Xu , Dan Wu , Yixin Zhu , Ying Nian Wu

Conditional diffusion models provide a natural framework for probabilistic prediction of dynamical systems and have been successfully applied to fluid dynamics and weather prediction. However, in many settings, the available information at…

The performance of time series forecasting has recently been greatly improved by the introduction of transformers. In this paper, we propose a general multi-scale framework that can be applied to the state-of-the-art transformer-based time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Amin Shabani , Amir Abdi , Lili Meng , Tristan Sylvain

Non-stationarity is an intrinsic property of real-world time series and plays a crucial role in time series forecasting. Previous studies primarily adopt instance normalization to attenuate the non-stationarity of original series for better…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Tianyu Jia , Zongxia Xie , Yanru Sun , Dilfira Kudrat , Qinghua Hu

The vast majority of time-series forecasting approaches require a substantial training dataset. However, many real-life forecasting applications have very little initial observations, sometimes just 40 or fewer. Thus, the applicability of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-06 Samuel Dooley , Gurnoor Singh Khurana , Chirag Mohapatra , Siddartha Naidu , Colin White

Time series forecasting is an important task in many fields ranging from supply chain management to weather forecasting. Recently, Transformer neural network architectures have shown promising results in forecasting on common time series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-08 Rares Cristian , Pavithra Harsha , Clemente Ocejo , Georgia Perakis , Brian Quanz , Ioannis Spantidakis , Hamza Zerhouni

Recently, deep learning has driven significant advancements in multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) tasks. However, much of the current research in MTSF tends to evaluate models from a holistic perspective, which obscures the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Shuang Liang , Chaochuan Hou , Xu Yao , Shiping Wang , Minqi Jiang , Songqiao Han , Hailiang Huang

Time series forecasting is critical to real-world decision making, yet most existing approaches remain unimodal and rely on extrapolating historical patterns. While recent progress in large language models (LLMs) highlights the potential…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Jinkwan Jang , Hyunbin Jin , Hyungjin Park , Kyubyung Chae , Taesup Kim

Symbolic regression (SR) searches for analytical expressions representing the relationship between a set of explanatory and response variables. Current SR methods assume a single dataset extracted from a single experiment. Nevertheless,…

Time series forecasting (TSF) is an essential branch of machine learning with various applications. Most methods for TSF focus on constructing different networks to extract better information and improve performance. However, practical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-19 Yanru Sun , Zongxia Xie , Haoyu Xing , Hualong Yu , Qinghua Hu

Recent studies have indicated that vision models pre-trained on images can serve as time series foundation models (TSFMs) by reformulating time series forecasting (TSF) as image reconstruction. However, effective cross-modal transfer from…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Lefei Shen , Mouxiang Chen , Xu Liu , Han Fu , Xiaoxue Ren , Jianling Sun , Zhuo Li , Chenghao Liu

The advancement of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has been driven primarily by large-scale pre-training, but inference-time compute potential remains largely untapped. This work systematically investigates two questions: how do TSFMs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Ruijin Hua , Zichuan Liu , Kun Zhang , Yiyuan Yang

The field of time series forecasting has garnered significant attention in recent years, prompting the development of advanced models like TimeSieve, which demonstrates impressive performance. However, an analysis reveals certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Songning Lai , Ninghui Feng , Haochen Sui , Ze Ma , Hao Wang , Zichen Song , Hang Zhao , Yutao Yue

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated increasing capabilities due to their extensive pretraining on large volumes of diverse time series data. Consequently, the quality of time series data is crucial to TSFM performance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-11 Shunyu Wu , Tianyue Li , Yixuan Leng , Jingyi Suo , Jian Lou , Dan Li , See-Kiong Ng

Time series forecasting using historical data has been an interesting and challenging topic, especially when the data is corrupted by missing values. In many industrial problem, it is important to learn the inference function between the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Trang H. Tran , Lam M. Nguyen , Kyongmin Yeo , Nam Nguyen , Dzung Phan , Roman Vaculin , Jayant Kalagnanam

Diffusion models, initially developed for image synthesis, demonstrate remarkable generative capabilities. Recently, their application has expanded to time series forecasting (TSF), yielding promising results. Existing surveys on time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-03 Chen Su , Zhengzhou Cai , Yuanhe Tian , Zhuochao Chang , Zihong Zheng , Yan Song

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed length window in the past as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-26 Jimeng Shi , Mahek Jain , Giri Narasimhan

Prediction models are used to predict an outcome based on input variables. Missing data in input variables often occurs at model development and at prediction time. The missForestPredict R package proposes an adaptation of the missForest…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-08 Elena Albu , Shan Gao , Laure Wynants , Ben Van Calster

In the context of time series forecasting, it is a common practice to evaluate multiple methods and choose one of these methods or an ensemble for producing the best forecasts. However, choosing among different ensembles over multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-16 Himanshi Charotia , Abhishek Garg , Gaurav Dhama , Naman Maheshwari