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Recent lightweight MLP-based models have achieved strong performance in time series forecasting by capturing stable trends and seasonal patterns. However, their effectiveness hinges on an implicit assumption of local stationarity…

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting involves modeling temporal dependencies within historical records. Transformers have demonstrated remarkable performance in MTS forecasting due to their capability to capture long-term…

Deep learning has achieved strong performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF). However, we identify a critical representation paradox, termed Latent Chaos: models with accurate predictions often learn latent representations that are…

Recent studies have shown that by introducing prior knowledge, multi-scale analysis of complex and non-stationary time series in real environments can achieve good results in the field of long-term forecasting. However, affected by…

Multivariate time series alignment is critical for ensuring coherent analysis across variables, but missing values and timestamp inconsistencies make this task highly challenging. Existing approaches often rely on prior imputation, which…

Financial time series forecasting is central to trading, portfolio optimization, and risk management, yet it remains challenging due to noisy, non-stationary, and heterogeneous data. Recent advances in time series foundation models (TSFMs),…

This paper proposes a supervised dimension reduction methodology for tensor data which has two advantages over most image-based prognostic models. First, the model does not require tensor data to be complete which expands its application to…

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) seeks to model temporal dynamics among variables to predict future trends. Transformer-based models and large language models (LLMs) have shown promise due to their ability to capture long-range…

Time series forecasting is vital in diverse sectors such as energy and transportation, where non-stationary dynamics are deeply intertwined with external events in other modalities such as texts. However, incorporating natural…

Time series AI is crucial for analyzing dynamic web content, driving a surge of pre-trained large models known for their strong knowledge encoding and transfer capabilities across diverse tasks. However, given their energy-intensive…

Time-series forecasting plays an important role in many domains. Boosted by the advances in Deep Learning algorithms, it has for instance been used to predict wind power for eolic energy production, stock market fluctuations, or motor…

In Das and Politis(2020), a model-free bootstrap(MFB) paradigm was proposed for generating prediction intervals of univariate, (locally) stationary time series. Theoretical guarantees for this algorithm was resolved in Wang and…

Learning complex time series forecasting models usually requires a large amount of data, as each model is trained from scratch for each task/data set. Leveraging learning experience with similar datasets is a well-established technique for…

The forecasting of Multivariate Time Series (MTS) has long been an important but challenging task. Due to the non-stationary problem across long-distance time steps, previous studies primarily adopt stationarization method to attenuate the…

Statistical models are central to machine learning with broad applicability across a range of downstream tasks. The models are controlled by free parameters that are typically estimated from data by maximum-likelihood estimation or…

We propose a recurrent neural network for a "model-free" simulation of a dynamical system with unknown parameters without prior knowledge. The deep learning model aims to jointly learn the nonlinear time marching operator and the effects of…

In multivariate time series forecasting, the Transformer architecture encounters two significant challenges: effectively mining features from historical sequences and avoiding overfitting during the learning of temporal dependencies. To…

Time series forecasting drives operational decisions in areas like finance, transportation, and energy. While supervised learning approaches achieve strong performance, they require domain-specific training, feature engineering, and ongoing…

Time series are generated in diverse domains such as economic, traffic, health, and energy, where forecasting of future values has numerous important applications. Not surprisingly, many forecasting methods are being proposed. To ensure…

We consider forecasting functional time series of extreme values within a generalised extreme value distribution (GEV). The GEV distribution can be characterised using the three parameters (location, scale and shape). As a result, the…