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This paper introduces the concept of random context representations for the transition probabilities of a finite-alphabet stochastic process. Processes with these representations generalize context tree processes (a.k.a. variable length…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-09 Roberto Imbuzeiro Oliveira

We study continuous-time Markov chains on the non-negative integers under mild regularity conditions (in particular, the set of jump vectors is finite and both forward and backward jumps are possible). Based on the so-called flux balance…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-26 Mads Chr Hansen , Carsten Wiuf , Chuang Xu

The time evolution of many physical, chemical, and biological systems can be modelled by stochastic transitions between the minima of the potential energy surface describing the system of interest. We show that in cases where there are two…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-09-11 S. P. Fitzgerald , A. Bailey Hass , G. Díaz Leines , A. J. Archer

A continuous time mixed state branching process is constructed as the scaling limits of two-type Galton-Watson processes. The process can also be obtained by the pathwise unique solution to a stochastic equation system. From the stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-28 Shukai Chen , Zenghu Li

Consider the continuous-time Markov Branching Process. In critical case we consider a situation when the generating function of intensity of transformation of particles has the infinite second moment, but its tail regularly varies in sense…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-07 Azam Imomov

Traditionally stationarity refers to shift invariance of the distribution of a stochastic process. In this paper, we rediscover stationarity as a path property instead of a distributional property. More precisely, we characterize a set of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-18 Yi Shen , Tony S. Wirjanto

In this article, we primarily propose a novel Bayesian characterization of stationary and nonstationary stochastic processes. In practice, this theory aims to distinguish between global stationarity and nonstationarity for both parametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Sucharita Roy , Sourabh Bhattacharya

This study introduces a comparative modeling framework using stationary and non-stationary transition probabilities within a Markov Decision Process (MDP) to assess COVID-19 disease dynamics. Stationary transition probabilities assume…

In this paper we consider the distribution of the location of the path supremum in a fixed interval for self-similar processes with stationary increments. To this end, a point process is constructed and its relation to the distribution of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-24 Yi Shen

Maximum entropy (maxEnt) inference of state probabilities using state-dependent constraints is popular in the study of complex systems. In stochastic dynamical systems, the effect of state space topology and path-dependent constraints on…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-10-28 Purushottam D. Dixit

We construct a stochastic fluid process with an underlying piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) akin to the one used in the construction of the rational arrival process (RAP), which we call the RAP-modulated fluid process. As…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-12 Nigel G. Bean , Giang T. Nguyen , Bo F. Nielsen , Oscar Peralta

This paper presents a new condition for the existence of optimal stationary policies in average-cost continuous-time Markov decision processes with unbounded cost and transition rates, arising from controlled queueing systems. This…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-04-23 Cao Ping , Xie Jingui

We study a generalization of the Brownian bridge as a stochastic process that models the position and velocity of inertial particles between the two end-points of a time interval. The particles experience random acceleration and are assumed…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-07-15 Yongxin Chen , Tryphon Georgiou

This article aims to investigate sufficient conditions for the stability of stochastic differential equations with a random structure, particularly in contexts involving the presence of concentration points. The proof of asymptotic…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-22 Taras Lukashiv , Igor V. Malyk , Maryna Chepeleva , Petr V. Nazarov

Let $\{X_n\}$ be a stationary and ergodic time series taking values from a finite or countably infinite set ${\cal X}$. Assume that the distribution of the process is otherwise unknown. We propose a sequence of stopping times $\lambda_n$…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-06-19 G. Morvai , B. Weiss

We study continuous time Markov processes on graphs. The notion of frequency is introduced, which serves well as a scaling factor between any Markov time of a continuous time Markov process and that of its jump chain. As an application, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jianjun Tian , Xiao-Song Lin

Markov branching systems form a fundamental class of stochastic models that are extensively applied in biology, physics, finance, and other domains. These systems are distinguished by their continuous-time evolution and inherent branching…

We study the stationary fluctuations of independent run-and-tumble particles. We prove that the joint densities of particles with given internal state converges to an infinite dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We also consider an…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-13 Frank Redig , Hidde van Wiechen

In this paper, we analyze the use of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model dynamical systems subjected to bounded noisy perturbations. In order to discuss the main characteristics of this new approach we consider some basic models in…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-01-17 Tomás Caraballo , Renato Colucci , Javier López-de-la-Cruz , Alain Rapaport

For a stochastic system, its evolution from one state to another can have a large number of possible paths. Non-uniformity in the field of system variables leads the local dynamics in state transition varies considerably from path to path…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-03-26 De-yu Zhong , Guang-qian Wang , Tie-jian Li , Ming-xi ZHANG , You Xia , Yu Zhang