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Dynamic decisions are pivotal to economic policy making. We show how existing evidence from randomized control trials can be utilized to guide personalized decisions in challenging dynamic environments with budget and capacity constraints.…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-26 Karun Adusumilli , Friedrich Geiecke , Claudio Schilter

Many applied decision-making problems have a dynamic component: The policymaker needs not only to choose whom to treat, but also when to start which treatment. For example, a medical doctor may choose between postponing treatment (watchful…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-01 Xinkun Nie , Emma Brunskill , Stefan Wager

We develop the few-shot continual learning task from first principles and hypothesize an evolutionary motivation and mechanism of action for executive function as a contrastive value policy which resamples and relabels perception data via…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-04-28 Chris Lengerich , Ben Lengerich

A treatment policy defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict what happens if a policy is changed. Existing methods that predict how the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

Policy learning in modern operations environments faces a fundamental tension between limited operational data and the large, often continuous, state and action spaces over which good decisions must be identified and deployed. We study…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Shengbo Wang , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

Decision makers, such as doctors and judges, make crucial decisions such as recommending treatments to patients, and granting bails to defendants on a daily basis. Such decisions typically involve weighting the potential benefits of taking…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-24 Himabindu Lakkaraju , Cynthia Rudin

Suppose that $m_n$ observations are made from the distribution $\mathbf {R}$ and $n-m_n$ from the distribution $\mathbf {S}$. Associate with each pair, $x$ from $\mathbf {R}$ and $y$ from $\mathbf {S}$, a nonnegative score $\phi(x,y)$. An…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ralph P. Russo , Nariankadu D. Shyamalkumar

Algorithmic recommendations and decisions have become ubiquitous in today's society. Many of these data-driven policies, especially in the realm of public policy, are based on known, deterministic rules to ensure their transparency and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-02 Eli Ben-Michael , D. James Greiner , Kosuke Imai , Zhichao Jiang

Counterfactual reasoning is an important paradigm applicable in many fields, such as healthcare, economics, and education. In this work, we propose a novel method to address the issue of \textit{selection bias}. We learn two groups of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-20 Zichen Zhang , Qingfeng Lan , Lei Ding , Yue Wang , Negar Hassanpour , Russell Greiner

Learning personalized decision policies that generalize to the target population is of great relevance. Since training data is often not representative of the target population, standard policy learning methods may yield policies that do…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-03 Tobias Hatt , Daniel Tschernutter , Stefan Feuerriegel

Statistical inferential results generally come with a measure of reliability for decision-making purposes. For a policy implementer, the value of implementing published policy research depends critically upon this reliability. For a policy…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2024-08-21 Duncan Ermini Leaf

Modeling policies for sequential clinical decision-making based on observational data is useful for describing treatment practices, standardizing frequent patterns in treatment, and evaluating alternative policies. For each task, it is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-12 Anton Matsson , Lena Stempfle , Yaochen Rao , Zachary R. Margolin , Heather J. Litman , Fredrik D. Johansson

We analyze and quantify, in a financial market with parameter uncertainty and for a Constant Relative Risk Aversion investor, the utility effects of two different boundedly rational (i.e., sub-optimal) investment strategies (namely, myopic…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-14 Michele Longo , Alessandra Mainini

Imitation learning is a control design paradigm that seeks to learn a control policy reproducing demonstrations from expert agents. By substituting expert demonstrations for optimal behaviours, the same paradigm leads to the design of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-20 Dharmesh Tailor , Dario Izzo

In this paper, we present a generalization of the certainty equivalence principle of stochastic control. One interpretation of the classical certainty equivalence principle for linear systems with output feedback and quadratic costs is as…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Berk Bozkurt , Aditya Mahajan , Ashutosh Nayyar , Yi Ouyang

Recent literature on policy learning has primarily focused on regret bounds of the learned policy. We provide a new perspective by developing a unified semiparametric efficiency framework for policy learning, allowing for general treatments…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-10 Yue Fang , Geert Ridder , Haitian Xie

Recent studies have introduced the worst-case quantum divergence as a key measure in quantum information. Here we show that such divergences can be understood from the perspective of the resource theory of asymmetric distinguishability,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-10-06 Siqi Yao , Kun Fang

I propose Nonparametric Bayesian Policy Learning (NBPL) as a framework for uncertainty-aware treatment choice. I consider a decision-maker (DM) seeking to select an expected welfare-maximizing treatment rule using observable…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-19 Haonan Ye

Estimation of individual treatment effects is commonly used as the basis for contextual decision making in fields such as healthcare, education, and economics. However, it is often sufficient for the decision maker to have estimates of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-13 Maggie Makar , Fredrik D. Johansson , John Guttag , David Sontag

Dynamic treatment regimes are treatment allocations tailored to heterogeneous individuals. The optimal dynamic treatment regime is a regime that maximizes counterfactual welfare. We introduce a framework in which we can partially learn the…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-14 Sukjin Han