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Estimating causal quantities from observational data is crucial for understanding the safety and effectiveness of medical treatments. However, to make reliable inferences, medical practitioners require not only estimating averaged causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel , Mihaela van der Schaar

This paper provides a new approach for identifying and estimating the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated under a linear factor model that allows for multiple time-varying unobservables. Unlike the majority of the literature on…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-28 Koki Fusejima , Takuya Ishihara

A key assumption of the differences-in-differences designs is that the average evolution of untreated potential outcomes is the same across different treatment cohorts: a parallel trends assumption. In this paper, we relax the parallel…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-10 Myungkou Shin

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in survival settings is complicated by right censoring as well as the time-varying nature of the estimand. While the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) provides a natural target, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Yuming Sun , Jian Kang , Yi Li

This paper introduces a novel approach for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects of binary treatment in panel data, particularly focusing on short panel data with large cross-sectional data and observed confoundings. In contrast to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-05 Meijia Wang , Ignacio Martinez , P. Richard Hahn

We consider the problem of extrapolating treatment effects across heterogeneous populations (``sites"/``contexts"). We consider an idealized scenario in which the researcher observes cross-sectional data for a large number of units across…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-03 Konrad Menzel

Motivated by applications in precision medicine and treatment effect heterogeneity, recent research has focused on estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) using machine learning (ML). CATE estimates may represent…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-30 Oliver J. Hines , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Stijn Vansteelandt

This paper studies identification of average treatment effects in a panel data setting. It introduces a novel nonparametric factor model and proves identification of average treatment effects. The identification proof is based on the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-26 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

Learning causal effects from observational data greatly benefits a variety of domains such as health care, education and sociology. For instance, one could estimate the impact of a new drug on specific individuals to assist the clinic plan…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-19 Xin Du , Lei Sun , Wouter Duivesteijn , Alexander Nikolaev , Mykola Pechenizkiy

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) from observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, with less attention paid to survival outcomes and almost none to settings with competing risks. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-30 Shenbo Xu , Raluca Cobzaru , Stan N. Finkelstein , Roy E. Welsch , Kenney Ng , Zach Shahn

A further understanding of cause and effect within observational data is critical across many domains, such as economics, health care, public policy, web mining, online advertising, and marketing campaigns. Although significant advances…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li

There are many measures to report so-called treatment or causal effects: absolute difference, ratio, odds ratio, number needed to treat, and so on. The choice of a measure, e.g. absolute versus relative, is often debated because it leads to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Bénédicte Colnet , Julie Josse , Gaël Varoquaux , Erwan Scornet

Multidimensional heterogeneity and endogeneity are important features of a wide class of econometric models. With control variables to correct for endogeneity, nonparametric identification of treatment effects requires strong support…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-28 Whitney K. Newey , Sami Stouli

This article studies the estimation of the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time-to-an-event or on some other continuously distributed outcome. The paper applies to the situation where treatment is repeatedly adapted to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-06-19 Judith J. Lok

In many situations, researchers are interested in identifying dynamic effects of an irreversible treatment with a time-invariant binary instrumental variable (IV). For example, in evaluations of dynamic effects of training programs with a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-28 Bruno Ferman , Otávio Tecchio

This study investigates the estimation and the statistical inference about Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs), which have garnered attention as a metric representing individualized causal effects. In our data-generating process,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-07 Masahiro Kato

Heterogeneous Treatment Effect (HTE) and Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) models relax the assumption that treatment effects are the same for every user. We present a large scale industrial framework for estimating HTE using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Jing Pan , Li Shi , Paul Lo

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity is vital to many scientific fields because the same treatment may affect different individuals differently. Quantile regression provides a natural framework for modeling such heterogeneity. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-12 Alexander Giessing , Jingshen Wang

This paper examines the identification and estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in event studies, emphasizing the importance of both lagged dependent variables and treatment effect heterogeneity. We show that omitting lagged…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-18 Irene Botosaru , Laura Liu

Numerous empirical studies employ regression discontinuity designs with multiple cutoffs and heterogeneous treatments. A common practice is to normalize all the cutoffs to zero and estimate one effect. This procedure identifies the average…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-06 Marinho Bertanha