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Random forests are a learning algorithm proposed by Breiman [Mach. Learn. 45 (2001) 5--32] that combines several randomized decision trees and aggregates their predictions by averaging. Despite its wide usage and outstanding practical…
In this work, we aim to determine the main factors driving behavioral change during the seasonal flu. To this end, we analyze a unique dataset comprised of 599 surveys completed by 434 Italian users of Influweb, a Web platform for…
Background Information: Falls are associated with high direct and indirect costs, and significant morbidity and mortality for patients. Pathological falls are usually a result of a compromised motor system, and/or cognition. Very little…
Regression trees are a popular machine learning algorithm that fit piecewise constant models by recursively partitioning the predictor space. This paper focuses on statistical inference for a data-dependent model obtained from a fitted…
This paper introduces a novel framework for enhancing Random Forest classifiers by integrating probabilistic feature sampling and hyperparameter tuning via Simulated Annealing. The proposed framework exhibits substantial advancements in…
Random forests are an ensemble method relevant for many problems, such as regression or classification. They are popular due to their good predictive performance (compared to, e.g., decision trees) requiring only minimal tuning of…
As COVID-19 pandemic progresses, severe flu seasons may happen alongside an increase in cases in cases and death of COVID-19, causing severe burdens on health care resources and public safety. A consequence of a twindemic may be a mixture…
Epidemiological forecasting from surveillance data is a hard problem and hybridizing mechanistic compartmental models with neural models is a natural direction. The mechanistic structure helps keep trajectories epidemiologically plausible,…
The stock market is a crucial component of the financial market, playing a vital role in wealth accumulation for investors, financing costs for listed companies, and the stable development of the national macroeconomy. Significant…
Despite their remarkable effectiveness and broad application, the drivers of success underlying ensembles of trees are still not fully understood. In this paper, we highlight how interpreting tree ensembles as adaptive and self-regularizing…
Random forest regression is a powerful non-parametric method that adapts to local data characteristics through data-driven partitioning, making it effective across diverse application domains. However, the piecewise constant nature of…
Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data intensive exercise. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the…
Accurate production forecasts are essential to continue facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. This paper illustrates how to obtain probabilistic day-ahead forecasts of wind power generation via…
Spatial epidemiology identifies the drivers of elevated population-level disease risks, using disease counts, exposures and known confounders at the areal unit level. Poisson regression models are typically used for inference, which…
This is a method report for the Kaggle data competition 'Predict future sales'. In this paper, we propose a rather simple approach to future sales predicting based on feature engineering, Random Forest Regressor and ensemble learning. Its…
Data analysis and machine learning have become an integrative part of the modern scientific methodology, offering automated procedures for the prediction of a phenomenon based on past observations, unraveling underlying patterns in data and…
Tree ensemble models such as random forests and boosted trees are among the most widely used and practically successful predictive models in applied machine learning and business analytics. Although such models have been used to make…
We introduce WildWood (WW), a new ensemble algorithm for supervised learning of Random Forest (RF) type. While standard RF algorithms use bootstrap out-of-bag samples to compute out-of-bag scores, WW uses these samples to produce improved…
Multi-model prediction efforts in infectious disease modeling and climate modeling involve multiple teams independently producing projections under various scenarios. Often these scenarios are produced by the presence and absence of a…
Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is of prime importance in many disciplines, ranging from personalized medicine to economics among many others. Random forests have been shown to be a flexible and powerful approach to HTE…