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Standard supervised learning procedures are validated against a test set that is assumed to have come from the same distribution as the training data. However, in many problems, the test data may have come from a different distribution. We…
Increased availability of epidemiological data, novel digital data streams, and the rise of powerful machine learning approaches have generated a surge of research activity on real-time epidemic forecast systems. In this paper, we propose…
Random Forest (Breiman, 2001) is a successful and widely used regression and classification algorithm. Part of its appeal and reason for its versatility is its (implicit) construction of a kernel-type weighting function on training data,…
Epidemiological models for the spread of pathogens in a population are usually only able to describe a single pathogen. This makes their application unrealistic in cases where multiple pathogens with similar symptoms are spreading…
This papers proposes a generic, high-level methodology for generating forecast combinations that would deliver the optimal linearly combined forecast in terms of the mean-squared forecast error if one had access to two population…
Forecasting influenza like illnesses (ILI) has rapidly progressed in recent years from an art to a science with a plethora of data-driven methods. While these methods have achieved qualified success, their applicability is limited due to…
Random forests are a scheme proposed by Leo Breiman in the 2000's for building a predictor ensemble with a set of decision trees that grow in randomly selected subspaces of data. Despite growing interest and practical use, there has been…
Predictions of fatalities from violent conflict on the PRIO-GRID-month (pgm) level are characterized by high levels of uncertainty, limiting their usefulness in practical applications. We discuss the two main sources of uncertainty for this…
We develop Clustered Random Forests, a random forests algorithm for clustered data, arising from independent groups that exhibit within-cluster dependence. The leaf-wise predictions for each decision tree making up clustered random forests…
Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and…
Random Forest is a machine learning method that offers many advantages, including the ability to easily measure variable importance. Class balancing technique is a well-known solution to deal with class imbalance problem. However, it has…
Farmers in developing regions like Karnataka, India, face a dual challenge: navigating extreme market and climate volatility while being excluded from the digital revolution due to literacy barriers. This paper presents a novel decision…
Random Forest (RF) is a well-known data-driven algorithm applied in several fields thanks to its flexibility in modeling the relationship between the response variable and the predictors, also in case of strong non-linearities. In…
Seasonal influenza is a sometimes surprisingly impactful disease, causing thousands of deaths per year along with much additional morbidity. Timely knowledge of the outbreak state is valuable for managing an effective response. The current…
Scientific advice to the UK government throughout the COVID-19 pandemic has been informed by ensembles of epidemiological models provided by members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (SPI-M). Among other applications,…
Sepsis is a severe condition responsible for many deaths in the United States and worldwide, making accurate prediction of outcomes crucial for timely and effective treatment. Previous studies employing machine learning faced limitations in…
Regression models for supervised learning problems with a continuous target are commonly understood as models for the conditional mean of the target given predictors. This notion is simple and therefore appealing for interpretation and…
Timely and accurate forecasts of seasonal influenza would assist public health decision-makers in planning intervention strategies, efficiently allocating resources, and possibly saving lives. For these reasons, influenza forecasts are…
This paper deals with prediction of anopheles number, the main vector of malaria risk, using environmental and climate variables. The variables selection is based on an automatic machine learning method using regression trees, and random…
Recurrent events are common in clinical, healthcare, social and behavioral studies. A recent analysis framework for potentially censored recurrent event data is to construct a censored longitudinal data set consisting of times to the first…