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Stochastic averaging problems with Gaussian forcing have been studied thoroughly for many years, but far less attention has been paid to problems where the stochastic forcing has infinite variance, such as an {\alpha}-stable noise forcing.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-05-24 William F. Thompson , Rachel A. Kuske , Adam. H. Monahan

We obtain complementary recurrence and transience criteria for processes $X=(X_n)_{n \ge 0}$ with values in $\mathbb R^d_+$ fulfilling a non-linear equation $X_{n+1}=MX_n+g(X_n)+ \xi_{n+1}$. Here $M$ denotes a primitive matrix having…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-16 Götz Kersting

We consider a new method of the semiparametric statistical estimation for the continuous-time moving average L\'evy processes. We derive the convergence rates of the proposed estimators, and show that these rates are optimal in the minimax…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-10 Denis Belomestny , Tatiana Orlova , Vladimir Panov

We propose a modeling framework for time-varying covariance matrices based on the assumption that the logarithm of a realized covariance matrix follows a matrix-variate oNrmal distribution. By operating in the space of symmetric matrices,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-30 Edoardo Otranto

The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-22 Timo Dimitriadis , Yannick Hoga

In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient two-stage variable selection approach for sparse GLARMA models, which are pervasive for modeling discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining the estimation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-31 Marina Gomtsyan , Céline Lévy-Leduc , Sarah Ouadah , Laure Sansonnet , Thomas Blein

We consider affine Markov processes taking values in convex cones. In particular, we characterize all affine processes taking values in an irreducible symmetric cone in terms of certain L\'evy-Khintchine triplets. This is the complete…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-12-07 Christa Cuchiero , Martin Keller-Ressel , Eberhard Mayerhofer , Josef Teichmann

Temporal noise correlations are ubiquitous in quantum systems, yet often neglected in the analysis of quantum circuits due to the complexity required to accurately characterize and model them. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-09-15 Kevin Schultz , Gregory Quiroz , Paraj Titum , B. D. Clader

Max-autogressive moving average (Max-ARMA) processes are powerful tools for modelling time series data with heavy-tailed behaviour; these are a non-linear version of the popular autoregressive moving average models. River flow data…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-26 Eleanor D'Arcy , Jonathan A Tawn

This paper establishes strong and weak convergence rates for slow-fast systems driven by $\alpha$-stable processes with jump coefficients. Unlike existing studies on multiscale systems driven by additive L\'{e}vy white noise, our model…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-05 Qiu-Chen Yang , Kun Yin

We define a new multivariate time series model by generalizing the ARMAX process in a multivariate way. We give conditions on stationarity and analyze local dependence and domains of attraction. As a consequence of the obtained result, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-11 Marta Ferreira , Helena Ferreira

Here we present a theoretical study on the main properties of Fractionally Integrated Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (FIEGARCH) processes. We analyze the conditions for the existence, the invertibility,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-03-26 Sílvia R. C. Lopes , Taiane S. Prass

We use information from higher order moments to achieve identification of non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressive moving average (SVARMA) models, possibly non-fundamental or non-causal, through a frequency domain criterion based on a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-10 Carlos Velasco

In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval $(a,b)$ following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-16 Fábio Mariano Bayer , Débora Missio Bayer , Guilherme Pumi

Positive real odd matrix functions, often referred to as positive real lossless matrix functions, play an important role in many applications in multi-port electrical systems. In this paper we present closer analogues to some of the known…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-12 Sanne ter Horst , Alma Naudé

We formulate and study a general family of (continuous-time) stochastic dynamics for accelerated first-order minimization of smooth convex functions. Building on an averaging formulation of accelerated mirror descent, we propose a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-07-20 Walid Krichene , Peter L. Bartlett

A new portmanteau diagnostic test for vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models that is based on the determinant of the standardized multivariate residual autocorrelations is derived. The new test statistic may be considered an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-03 Esam Mahdi , A. Ian McLeod

In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient two-stage variable selection approach for sparse GLARMA models, which are pervasive for modeling discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining the estimation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-20 M. Gomtsyan , C. Lévy-Leduc , S. Ouadah , L. Sansonnet

We study a class of stationary Markov processes with marginal distributions identifiable by moments such that every conditional moment of degree say $m$ is a polynomial of degree at most $m\;\text{.}\;$ We show that then under some…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-19 Paweł J. Szabłowski

Conditional stability estimates require additional regularization for obtaining stable approximate solutions if the validity area of such estimates is not completely known. In this context, we consider ill-posed nonlinear inverse problems…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-01-29 Frank Werner , Bernd Hofmann
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