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We consider the sequential sampling of species, where observed samples are classified into the species they belong to. We are particularly interested in studying some quantities describing the sampling process when there is a new species…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-01 Servet Martínez , Javier Santibáñez

We consider unsupervised classification by means of a latent multinomial variable which categorizes a scalar response into one of L components of a mixture model. This process can be thought as a hierarchical model with first level…

We develop a (nearly) unbiased particle filtering algorithm for a specific class of continuous-time state-space models, such that (a) the latent process $X_t$ is a linear Gaussian diffusion; and (b) the observations arise from a Poisson…

Computation · Statistics 2023-11-07 Ruiyang Jin , Sumeetpal S. Singh , Nicolas Chopin

Randomized benchmarking (RB) protocols are standard tools for characterizing quantum devices. Prior analyses of RB protocols have not provided a complete method for analyzing realistic data, resulting in a variety of ad-hoc methods. The…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-02-02 Ian Hincks , Joel J. Wallman , Chris Ferrie , Chris Granade , David G. Cory

Hierarchical statistical models are widely employed in information science and data engineering. The models consist of two types of variables: observable variables that represent the given data and latent variables for the unobservable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-02-21 Keisuke Yamazaki

We propose a Bayesian inference approach for a class of latent Markov models. These models are widely used for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data, when the interest is in studying the evolution of an individual unobservable…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-01-05 Francesco Bartolucci , Silvia Pandolfi

We propose a methodology for modeling and comparing probability distributions within a Bayesian nonparametric framework. Building on dependent normalized random measures, we consider a prior distribution for a collection of discrete random…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-01 Mario Beraha , Jim E. Griffin

We propose a flexible nonparametric Bayesian modelling framework for multivariate time series of count data based on tensor factorisations. Our models can be viewed as infinite state space Markov chains of known maximal order with…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Zhongzhen Wang , Petros Dellaportas , Ioannis Kosmidis

Item response theory (IRT) models typically rely on a normality assumption for subject-specific latent traits, which is often unrealistic in practice. Semiparametric extensions based on Dirichlet process mixtures offer a more flexible…

We develop a Bayesian approach called Bayesian projected calibration to address the problem of calibrating an imperfect computer model using observational data from a complex physical system. The calibration parameter and the physical…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-08 Fangzheng Xie , Yanxun Xu

We consider the problem of parameter estimation in the case of observation of the trajectory of diffusion process. We suppose that the drift coefficient has a singularity of cusp-type and the unknown parameter corresponds to the position of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-19 Yury A. Kutoyants

We expand upon a natural analogy between Bayesian statistics and statistical physics in which sample size corresponds to inverse temperature. This analogy motivates the definition of two novel statistical quantities: a learning capacity and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-05 Colin H. LaMont , Paul A. Wiggins

The distance dependent Chinese Restaurant Process (ddCRP) provides a flexible prior distribution for clustering observations, incorporating covariate information through pairwise distances and accommodating a rich variety of cluster…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Joseph Marsh , Theodore Kypraios , Rowland G. Seymour

We introduce a class of semiparametric time series models by assuming a quasi-likelihood approach driven by a latent factor process. More specifically, given the latent process, we only specify the conditional mean and variance of the time…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-02 Gisele O. Maia , Wagner Barreto-Souza , Fernando S. Bastos , Hernando Ombao

This paper introduces a new approach to the study of rates of convergence for posterior distributions. It is a natural extension of a recent approach to the study of Bayesian consistency. In particular, we improve on current rates of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-22 Stephen G. Walker , Antonio Lijoi , Igor Prünster

We study parametric inference for diffusion processes when observations occur nonsynchronously and are contaminated by market microstructure noise. We construct a quasi-likelihood function and study asymptotic mixed normality of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-29 Teppei Ogihara

Although discrete mixture modeling has formed the backbone of the literature on Bayesian density estimation, there are some well known disadvantages. We propose an alternative class of priors based on random nonlinear functions of a uniform…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Suprateek Kundu , David B. Dunson

Inference on modern Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) often relies on a variational inference treatment, imposing violated assumptions of independence and the form of the posterior. Traditional MCMC approaches avoid these assumptions at the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-07 Ethan Goan , Dimitri Perrin , Kerrie Mengersen , Clinton Fookes

The importance of interpretability of machine learning models has been increasing due to emerging enterprise predictive analytics, threat of data privacy, accountability of artificial intelligence in society, and so on. Piecewise linear…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-11-08 Masato Asahara , Ryohei Fujimaki

Intermittent demand forecasting poses unique challenges due to sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence. Classical models such as Croston, SBA, and the Teunter--Syntetos--Babai (TSB) method provide simple heuristics but lack…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-02 Zong-Han Bai , Po-Yen Chu