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SMC$^2$ is an efficient algorithm for sequential estimation and state inference of state-space models. It generates $N_{\theta}$ parameter particles $\theta^{m}$, and, for each $\theta^{m}$, it runs a particle filter of size $N_{x}$ (i.e.…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-02 Nicolas Chopin , James Ridgway , Mathieu Gerber , Omiros Papaspiliopoulos

Orthogonal Monte Carlo (OMC) is a very effective sampling algorithm imposing structural geometric conditions (orthogonality) on samples for variance reduction. Due to its simplicity and superior performance as compared to its Quasi Monte…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-29 Han Lin , Haoxian Chen , Tianyi Zhang , Clement Laroche , Krzysztof Choromanski

Developing efficient Bayesian computation algorithms for imaging inverse problems is challenging due to the dimensionality involved and because Bayesian imaging models are often not smooth. Current state-of-the-art methods often address…

Computation · Statistics 2023-05-04 Marcelo Pereyra , Luis A. Vargas-Mieles , Konstantinos C. Zygalakis

We investigate the prevalence of sample repetition in a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method recently introduced for political redistricting.

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Sarah Cannon , Daryl DeFord , Moon Duchin

When performing Bayesian inference using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, two considerations arise: the accuracy of the posterior approximation and computational efficiency. To address computational demands, Sequential Monte Carlo…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-11 Joshua Murphy , Conor Rosato , Andrew Millard , Lee Devlin , Paul Horridge , Simon Maskell

We describe an MCMC method for sampling distributions with soft constraints, which are constraints that are almost but not exactly satisfied. We sample a total distribution that is a convex combination of the target soft distribution with…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-24 Ildebrando Magnani

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an efficient Bayesian sampling method that can make distant proposals in the parameter space by simulating a Hamiltonian dynamical system. Despite its popularity in machine learning and data science, HMC is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-02 Ziming Liu , Zheng Zhang

We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-31 Dan Crisan , Joaquin Miguez

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a state of the art method for sampling from distributions with differentiable densities, but can converge slowly when applied to challenging multimodal problems. Running HMC with a time varying Hamiltonian,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-26 Reuben Cohn-Gordon , Uroš Seljak , Dries Sels

We consider a class of high-dimensional spatial filtering problems, where the spatial locations of observations are unknown and driven by the partially observed hidden signal. This problem is exceptionally challenging as not only is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-07 Hamza Ruzayqat , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

Calibration of individual based models (IBMs), successful in modeling complex ecological dynamical systems, is often performed only ad-hoc. Bayesian inference can be used for both parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification, but its…

Computation · Statistics 2017-11-09 Jonas Šukys , Mira Kattwinkel

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful and accurate method to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, HMC techniques are computationally demanding for Bayesian neural networks due to the high…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Ponkrshnan Thiagarajan , Tamer A. Zaki , Michael D. Shields

In this paper we consider fully Bayesian inference in general state space models. Existing particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms use an augmented model that takes into account all the variable sampled in a sequential Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-31 Christopher K. Carter , Eduardo F. Mendes , Robert Kohn

We address the problem of accurate, training-free guidance for conditional generation in trained diffusion models. Existing methods typically rely on point-estimates to approximate the posterior score, often resulting in biased…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Aidan Gleich , Scott C. Schmidler

Randomized smoothing has emerged as a potent certifiable defense against adversarial attacks by employing smoothing noises from specific distributions to ensure the robustness of a smoothed classifier. However, the utilization of Monte…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Devansh Bhardwaj , Kshitiz Kaushik , Sarthak Gupta

Satisfiability Modulo Counting (SMC) is a recently proposed general language to reason about problems integrating statistical and symbolic Artificial Intelligence. An SMC problem is an extended SAT problem in which the truth values of a few…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-19 Jinzhao Li , Nan Jiang , Yexiang Xue

Despite more than 40 years of research in condensed-matter physics, state-of-the-art approaches for simulating the radial distribution function (RDF) g(r) still rely on binning pair-separations into a histogram. Such methods suffer from…

Materials Science · Physics 2016-09-05 Thomas W. Rosch , Paul N. Patrone

We consider parallel asynchronous Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for problems where we can leverage (stochastic) gradients to define continuous dynamics which explore the target distribution. We outline a solution strategy for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-09 Jost Tobias Springenberg , Aaron Klein , Stefan Falkner , Frank Hutter

Multi-step-ahead time series prediction is one of the most challenging research topics in the field of time series modeling and prediction, and is continually under research. Recently, the multiple-input several multiple-outputs (MISMO)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-01-03 Yukun Bao , Tao Xiong , Zhongyi Hu
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