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Exploratory analysis of time series data can yield a better understanding of complex dynamical systems. Granger causality is a practical framework for analysing interactions in sequential data, applied in a wide range of domains. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-20 Ričards Marcinkevičs , Julia E. Vogt

A challenging problem when studying a dynamical system is to find the interdependencies among its individual components. Several algorithms have been proposed to detect directed dynamical influences between time series. Two of the most used…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-09-09 Alessandro Montalto , Sebastiano Stramaglia , Luca Faes , Giovanni Tessitore , Roberto Prevete , Daniele Marinazzo

While most classical approaches to Granger causality detection assume linear dynamics, many interactions in real-world applications, like neuroscience and genomics, are inherently nonlinear. In these cases, using linear models may lead to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-16 Alex Tank , Ian Covert , Nicholas Foti , Ali Shojaie , Emily Fox

Emergent effect is crucial to understanding the properties of complex systems that do not appear in their basic units, but there has been a lack of theories to measure and understand its mechanisms. In this paper, we consider emergence as a…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2025-01-22 Johnny Jingze Li , Sebastian Prado Guerra , Kalyan Basu , Gabriel A. Silva

Graphical models have been popularly used for capturing conditional independence structure in multivariate data, which are often built upon independent and identically distributed observations, limiting their applicability to complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Yuwen Wang , Changyu Liu , Xin He , Junhui Wang

Identifying the causal structure of systems with multiple dynamic elements is critical to several scientific disciplines. The conventional approach is to conduct statistical tests of causality, for example with Granger Causality, between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-22 Jacek P. Dmochowski

Dependence between nodes in a network is an important concept that pervades many areas including finance, politics, sociology, genomics and the brain sciences. One way to characterize dependence between components of a multivariate time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-08 Malik Shahid Sultan , Samuel Horvath , Hernando Ombao

The study of networks has witnessed an explosive growth over the past decades with several ground-breaking methods introduced. A particularly interesting -- and prevalent in several fields of study -- problem is that of inferring a function…

Granger causal inference is a contentious but widespread method used in fields ranging from economics to neuroscience. The original definition addresses the notion of causality in time series by establishing functional dependence…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-19 Noah D. Gade , Jordan Rodu

The problem of graph learning concerns the construction of an explicit topological structure revealing the relationship between nodes representing data entities, which plays an increasingly important role in the success of many graph-based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-20 Xingyue Pu , Siu Lun Chau , Xiaowen Dong , Dino Sejdinovic

Inferring network topology from dynamical observations is a fundamental problem pervading research on complex systems. Here, we present a simple, direct method to infer the structural connection topology of a network, given an observation…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-05-19 Srinivas Gorur Shandilya , Marc Timme

Networked structure emerged from a wide range of fields such as biological systems, World Wide Web and technological infrastructure. A deeply insight into the topological complexity of these networks has been gained. Some works start to pay…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-02-03 Jiang Xiongfei

Many scientific problems involve data exhibiting both temporal and cross-sectional dependencies. While linear dependencies have been extensively studied, the theoretical analysis of regression estimators under nonlinear dependencies remains…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-27 Marie-Christine Düker , Adam Waterbury

A flexible approach for modeling both dynamic event counting and dynamic link-based networks based on counting processes is proposed, and estimation in these models is studied. We consider nonparametric likelihood based estimation of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-30 Alexander Kreiß , Enno Mammen , Wolfgang Polonik

Traditional linear methods for forecasting multivariate time series are not able to satisfactorily model the non-linear dependencies that may exist in non-Gaussian series. We build on the theory of learning vector-valued functions in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-28 Magda Gregorová , Alexandros Kalousis , Stéphane Marchand-Maillet

Random networks are increasingly used to analyse complex transportation networks, such as airline routes, roads and rail networks. So far, this research has been focused on describing the properties of the networks with the help of random…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-09-19 Jürgen Hackl , Bryan T. Adey

This paper develops a framework for identification, estimation, and inference on the causal mechanisms driving endogenous social network formation. Identification is challenging because of unobserved confounders and reverse causality;…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-21 Maximilian Kasy , Elizabeth Linos , Sanaz Mobasseri

Capsule Networks attempt to represent patterns in images in a way that preserves hierarchical spatial relationships. Additionally, research has demonstrated that these techniques may be robust against adversarial perturbations. We present…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-10 Taylor Killian , Justin Goodwin , Olivia Brown , Sung-Hyun Son

In this work, we discover that causal inference provides a promising approach to capture heterophilic message-passing in Graph Neural Network (GNN). By leveraging cause-effect analysis, we can discern heterophilic edges based on asymmetric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-28 Botao Wang , Jia Li , Heng Chang , Keli Zhang , Fugee Tsung

Despite its importance, choosing the structural form of the kernel in nonparametric regression remains a black art. We define a space of kernel structures which are built compositionally by adding and multiplying a small number of base…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-05-15 David Duvenaud , James Robert Lloyd , Roger Grosse , Joshua B. Tenenbaum , Zoubin Ghahramani