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Counterfactual explanations shed light on the decisions of black-box models by explaining how an input can be altered to obtain a favourable decision from the model (e.g., when a loan application has been rejected). However, as noted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Francesco Leofante , Nico Potyka

We predict credit applications with off-the-shelf, interchangeable black-box classifiers and we explain single predictions with counterfactual explanations. Counterfactual explanations expose the minimal changes required on the input data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-11-19 Rory Mc Grath , Luca Costabello , Chan Le Van , Paul Sweeney , Farbod Kamiab , Zhao Shen , Freddy Lecue

Counterfactual estimation from observations represents a critical endeavor in numerous application fields, such as healthcare and finance, with the primary challenge being the mitigation of treatment bias. The balancing strategy aimed at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-19 Qiang Huang , Chuizheng Meng , Defu Cao , Biwei Huang , Yi Chang , Yan Liu

Estimation of individual treatment effect in observational data is complicated due to the challenges of confounding and selection bias. A useful inferential framework to address this is the counterfactual (potential outcomes) model which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-01-23 Min Lu , Saad Sadiq , Daniel J. Feaster , Hemant Ishwaran

The problem of individualization is recognized as crucial in almost every field. Identifying causes of effects in specific events is likewise essential for accurate decision making. However, such estimates invoke counterfactual…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Scott Mueller , Ang Li , Judea Pearl

Given an observational study with $n$ independent but heterogeneous units, our goal is to learn the counterfactual distribution for each unit using only one $p$-dimensional sample per unit containing covariates, interventions, and outcomes.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-18 Abhin Shah , Raaz Dwivedi , Devavrat Shah , Gregory W. Wornell

The counterfactual token generation has been limited to perturbing only a single token in texts that are generally short and single sentences. These tokens are often associated with one of many sensitive attributes. With limited…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-02-10 Pranay Lohia

We consider the problem of using logged data to make predictions about what would happen if we changed the `rules of the game' in a multi-agent system. This task is difficult because in many cases we observe actions individuals take but not…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-04-05 Alexander Peysakhovich , Christian Kroer , Adam Lerer

Counterfactual distributions are important ingredients for policy analysis and decomposition analysis in empirical economics. In this article we develop modeling and inference tools for counterfactual distributions based on regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-23 Victor Chernozhukov , Ivan Fernandez-Val , Blaise Melly

Machine Learning systems are increasingly prevalent across healthcare, law enforcement, and finance but often operate on historical data, which may carry biases against certain demographic groups. Causal and counterfactual fairness provides…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Jake Robertson , Noah Hollmann , Noor Awad , Frank Hutter

A key challenge facing natural language interfaces is enabling users to understand the capabilities of the underlying system. We propose a novel approach for generating explanations of a natural language interface based on semantic parsing.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-04-29 George Tolkachev , Stephen Mell , Steve Zdancewic , Osbert Bastani

Counterfactual explanations are widely used to interpret machine learning predictions by identifying minimal changes to input features that would alter a model's decision. However, most existing counterfactual methods have not been tested…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Leonidas Christodoulou , Chang Sun

Counterfactual explanations for black-box models aim to pr ovide insight into an algorithmic decision to its recipient. For a binary classification problem an individual counterfactual details which features might be changed for the model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-29 James M. Adams , Gesine Reinert , Lukasz Szpruch , Carsten Maple , Andrew Elliott

Counterfactual explanations are a popular type of explanation for making the outcomes of a decision making system transparent to the user. Counterfactual explanations tell the user what to do in order to change the outcome of the system in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 André Artelt , Barbara Hammer

Causal inference with interference is a rapidly growing area. The literature has begun to relax the "no-interference" assumption that the treatment received by one individual does not affect the outcomes of other individuals. In this paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-06 Tyler J. VanderWeele , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , M. Elizabeth Halloran

In high-stakes domains like medicine, it may be generally desirable for models to faithfully adhere to the context provided. But what happens if the context does not align with model priors or safety protocols? In this paper, we investigate…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Kaijie Mo , Siddhartha Venkatayogi , Chantal Shaib , Ramez Kouzy , Wei Xu , Byron C. Wallace , Junyi Jessy Li

Scientific hypotheses typically concern specific aspects of complex, imperfectly understood or entirely unknown mechanisms, such as the effect of gene expression levels on phenotypes or how microbial communities influence environmental…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-05 Elisabeth Ailer , Niclas Dern , Jason Hartford , Niki Kilbertus

In this article, we propose to use the formalism of quantum mechanics to describe and explain the so-called "abnormal" behaviour of agents in certain decision or choice contexts. The basic idea is to postulate that the preferences of these…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-12-04 Herve Zwirn

In the era of fast-paced precision medicine, observational studies play a major role in properly evaluating new treatments in clinical practice. Yet, unobserved confounding can significantly compromise causal conclusions drawn from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-20 Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Javier Abad , Konstantin Donhauser , Fanny Yang

Despite alarm over the reliance of machine learning systems on so-called spurious patterns, the term lacks coherent meaning in standard statistical frameworks. However, the language of causality offers clarity: spurious associations are due…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Divyansh Kaushik , Eduard Hovy , Zachary C. Lipton
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