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Recently, eXplainable AI (XAI) research has focused on counterfactual explanations as post-hoc justifications for AI-system decisions (e.g. a customer refused a loan might be told: If you asked for a loan with a shorter term, it would have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-10 Saugat Aryal , Mark T Keane

Counterfactual Explanations (CE) face several unresolved challenges, such as ensuring stability, synthesizing multiple CEs, and providing plausibility and sparsity guarantees. From a more practical point of view, recent studies [Pawelczyk…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Salim I. Amoukou , Nicolas J. B Brunel

Counterfactuals play a pivotal role in the two distinct data science fields of causal inference (CI) and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). While the core idea behind counterfactuals remains the same in both fields--the examination…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Galit Shmueli , David Martens , Jaewon Yoo , Travis Greene

Counterfactual Explanations are becoming a de-facto standard in post-hoc interpretable machine learning. For a given classifier and an instance classified in an undesired class, its counterfactual explanation corresponds to small…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Veronica Piccialli , Dolores Romero Morales , Cecilia Salvatore

Medical professionals evaluating alternative treatment plans for a patient often encounter time varying confounders, or covariates that affect both the future treatment assignment and the patient outcome. The recently proposed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-21 Garima Gupta , Lovekesh Vig , Gautam Shroff

Reinforcement learning agents tend to develop habits that are effective only under specific policies. Following an initial exploration phase where agents try out different actions, they eventually converge onto a particular policy. As this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Miguel Suau , Matthijs T. J. Spaan , Frans A. Oliehoek

As data-driven predictive models are increasingly used to inform decisions, it has been argued that decision makers should provide explanations that help individuals understand what would have to change for these decisions to be beneficial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-15 Stratis Tsirtsis , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

We describe and contrast two distinct problem areas for statistical causality: studying the likely effects of an intervention ("effects of causes"), and studying whether there is a causal link between the observed exposure and outcome in an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-02 A. Philip Dawid , Monica Musio

When engagement with a randomized trial is driven by factors that affect the outcome or when trial engagement directly affects the outcome independent of treatment, the average treatment effect among trial participants is unlikely to…

This paper investigates how certain relationship between observed and counterfactual distributions serves as an identifying condition for treatment effects when the treatment is endogenous, and shows that this condition holds in a range of…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-28 Sukjin Han , Haiqing Xu

The field of explainability in artificial intelligence (AI) has witnessed a growing number of studies and increasing scholarly interest. However, the lack of human-friendly and individual interpretations in explaining the outcomes of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Toygar Tanyel , Serkan Ayvaz , Bilgin Keserci

Clustering algorithms rely on complex optimisation processes that may be difficult to comprehend, especially for individuals who lack technical expertise. While many explainable artificial intelligence techniques exist for supervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-20 Aurora Spagnol , Kacper Sokol , Pietro Barbiero , Marc Langheinrich , Martin Gjoreski

While methods for measuring and correcting differential performance in risk prediction models have proliferated in recent years, most existing techniques can only be used to assess fairness across relatively large subgroups. The purpose of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-30 Solvejg Wastvedt , Jared D Huling , Julian Wolfson

Despite their enormous predictive power, machine learning models are often unsuitable for applications in regulated industries such as finance, due to their limited capacity to provide explanations. While model-agnostic frameworks such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-03 Joshua S. Harvey , Guanchao Feng , Sai Anusha Meesala , Tina Zhao , Dhagash Mehta

We consider the problem of learning fair decision systems in complex scenarios in which a sensitive attribute might affect the decision along both fair and unfair pathways. We introduce a causal approach to disregard effects along unfair…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-23 Silvia Chiappa , Thomas P. S. Gillam

In this work we propose a different surgical modified model for the construction of counterfactual variables under non parametric structural equation models. This approach allows the simultaneous representation of counterfactual responses…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-08 Julieta Molina , Lucio Pantazis , Mariela Sued

We propose a formal model for counterfactual estimation with unobserved confounding in "data-rich" settings, i.e., where there are a large number of units and a large number of measurements per unit. Our model provides a bridge between the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-03 Alberto Abadie , Anish Agarwal , Devavrat Shah

In the present article we consider the conjunction fallacy, a well known cognitive heuristic experimentally tested in cognitive science, which occurs for intuitive judgments in situations of bounded rationality. We show that the quantum…

General Physics · Physics 2007-08-30 Riccardo Franco

In complex tasks where the reward function is not straightforward and consists of a set of objectives, multiple reinforcement learning (RL) policies that perform task adequately, but employ different strategies can be trained by adjusting…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-12-20 Jasmina Gajcin , Rahul Nair , Tejaswini Pedapati , Radu Marinescu , Elizabeth Daly , Ivana Dusparic

We address the challenge of explaining counterfactual outcomes in multi-agent Markov decision processes. In particular, we aim to explain the total counterfactual effect of an agent's action on the outcome of a realized scenario through its…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Stelios Triantafyllou , Aleksa Sukovic , Yasaman Zolfimoselo , Goran Radanovic