Related papers: MPE inference using an Incremental Build-Infer-App…
Bayesian networks are popular probabilistic models that capture the conditional dependencies among a set of variables. Inference in Bayesian networks is a fundamental task for answering probabilistic queries over a subset of variables in…
This paper describes a new algorithm for exact Bayesian inference that is based on a recently proposed compositional semantics of Bayesian networks in terms of channels. The paper concentrates on the ideas behind this algorithm, involving a…
In recent years there has been a flurry of works on learning Bayesian networks from data. One of the hard problems in this area is how to effectively learn the structure of a belief network from incomplete data- that is, in the presence of…
Bayesian optimal experimental design provides a principled framework for selecting experimental settings that maximize obtained information. In this work, we focus on estimating the expected information gain in the setting where the…
Over the past several years Bayesian networks have been applied to a wide variety of problems. A central problem in applying Bayesian networks is that of finding one or more of the most probable instantiations of a network. In this paper we…
Efficient approximation lies at the heart of large-scale machine learning problems. In this paper, we propose a novel, robust maximum entropy algorithm, which is capable of dealing with hundreds of moments and allows for computationally…
This paper proposes the incremental Bayesian optimization algorithm (iBOA), which modifies standard BOA by removing the population of solutions and using incremental updates of the Bayesian network. iBOA is shown to be able to learn and…
Performing exact inference on Bayesian networks is known to be #P-hard. Typically approximate inference techniques are used instead to sample from the distribution on query variables given the values $e$ of evidence variables. Classically,…
Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…
This paper presents new results for the (partial) maximum a posteriori (MAP) problem in Bayesian networks, which is the problem of querying the most probable state configuration of some of the network variables given evidence. First, it is…
The empirical Bayes $g$-modeling approach via the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) is widely used for large-scale estimation and inference in the normal means problem, yet theoretical guarantees for uncertainty…
In this paper, we introduce Deep Probabilistic Ensembles (DPEs), a scalable technique that uses a regularized ensemble to approximate a deep Bayesian Neural Network (BNN). We do so by incorporating a KL divergence penalty term into the…
Bayesian inference for exponential family random graph models (ERGMs) is a doubly-intractable problem because of the intractability of both the likelihood and posterior normalizing factor. Auxiliary variable based Markov Chain Monte Carlo…
Many machine learning tasks can be formulated in terms of predicting structured outputs. In frameworks such as the structured support vector machine (SVM-Struct) and the structured perceptron, discriminative functions are learned by…
In the literature, the optimization problem to identify a set of composite hypotheses H, which will yield the $k$ largest $P(H|S_e)$ where a composite hypothesis is an instantiation of all the nodes in the network except the evidence nodes…
We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…
We present a new algorithm for finding maximum a-posterior) (MAP) assignments of values to belief networks. The belief network is compiled into a network consisting only of nodes with boolean (i.e. only 0 or 1) conditional probabilities.…
The MPE (Most Probable Explanation) query plays an important role in probabilistic inference. MPE solution algorithms for probabilistic relational models essentially adapt existing belief assessment method, replacing summation with…
In this paper, we introduce a method for approximating the solution to inference and optimization tasks in uncertain and deterministic reasoning. Such tasks are in general intractable for exact algorithms because of the large number of…
Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is the bread and butter of system inference for stochastic systems. In some generality, MLE will converge to the correct model in the infinite data limit. In the context of physical approaches to system…