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A common method for assessing validity of Bayesian sampling or approximate inference methods makes use of simulated data replicates for parameters drawn from the prior. Under continuity assumptions, quantiles of functions of the simulated…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-21 Xuejun Yu , David J. Nott , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Nadja Klein

Geoscientists use observed data to estimate properties of the Earth's interior. This often requires non-linear inverse problems to be solved and uncertainties to be estimated. Bayesian inference solves inverse problems under a probabilistic…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-01-01 Xuebin Zhao , Andrew Curtis

Deterministic neural networks (NNs) are increasingly being deployed in safety critical domains, where calibrated, robust, and efficient measures of uncertainty are crucial. In this paper, we propose a novel method for training non-Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Alexander Amini , Wilko Schwarting , Ava Soleimany , Daniela Rus

Federated Bayesian learning offers a principled framework for the definition of collaborative training algorithms that are able to quantify epistemic uncertainty and to produce trustworthy decisions. Upon the completion of collaborative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-09 Jinu Gong , Osvaldo Simeone , Joonhyuk Kang

Variational inference (VI) is a method to approximate the computationally intractable posterior distributions that arise in Bayesian statistics. Typically, VI fits a simple parametric distribution to the target posterior by minimizing an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-18 Chirag Modi , Charles Margossian , Yuling Yao , Robert Gower , David Blei , Lawrence Saul

Domain generalization is challenging due to the domain shift and the uncertainty caused by the inaccessibility of target domain data. In this paper, we address both challenges with a probabilistic framework based on variational Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Zehao Xiao , Jiayi Shen , Xiantong Zhen , Ling Shao , Cees G. M. Snoek

Sparse deep learning aims to address the challenge of huge storage consumption by deep neural networks, and to recover the sparse structure of target functions. Although tremendous empirical successes have been achieved, most sparse deep…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-17 Jincheng Bai , Qifan Song , Guang Cheng

The need for timely data analysis for economic decisions has prompted most economists and policy makers to search for non-traditional supplementary sources of data. In that context, text data is being explored to enrich traditional data…

General Economics · Economics 2022-09-21 Paul Trust , Ahmed Zahran , Rosane Minghim

While uncertainty estimation is a well-studied topic in deep learning, most such work focuses on marginal uncertainty estimates, i.e. the predictive mean and variance at individual input locations. But it is often more useful to estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Chaoqi Wang , Shengyang Sun , Roger Grosse

Variational mean field approximations tend to struggle with contemporary overparametrized deep neural networks. Where a Bayesian treatment is usually associated with high-quality predictions and uncertainties, the practical reality has been…

Uncertainty computation in deep learning is essential to design robust and reliable systems. Variational inference (VI) is a promising approach for such computation, but requires more effort to implement and execute compared to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-03 Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Didrik Nielsen , Voot Tangkaratt , Wu Lin , Yarin Gal , Akash Srivastava

One major impediment to the wider use of deep learning for clinical decision making is the difficulty of assigning a level of confidence to model predictions. Currently, deep Bayesian neural networks and sparse Gaussian processes are the…

A popular strategy for active learning is to specifically target a reduction in epistemic uncertainty, since aleatoric uncertainty is often considered as being intrinsic to the system of interest and therefore not reducible. Yet,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-12 Jake Thomas , Jeremie Houssineau

Bayesian deep learning approaches assume model parameters to be latent random variables and infer posterior distributions to quantify uncertainty, increase safety and trust, and prevent overconfident and unpredictable behavior. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Jihao Andreas Lin , Joe Watson , Pascal Klink , Jan Peters

The PAC-Bayesian framework has significantly advanced the understanding of statistical learning, particularly for majority voting methods. Despite its successes, its application to multi-view learning -- a setting with multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Mehdi Hennequin , Abdelkrim Zitouni , Khalid Benabdeslem , Haytham Elghazel , Yacine Gaci

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold great promise as a flexible and principled solution to deal with uncertainty when learning from finite data. Among approaches to realize probabilistic inference in deep neural networks, variational Bayes…

Predicting the remaining useful life of machinery, infrastructure, or other equipment can facilitate preemptive maintenance decisions, whereby a failure is prevented through timely repair or replacement. This allows for a better decision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-22 Mathias Kraus , Stefan Feuerriegel

Bayesian neural networks with latent variables are scalable and flexible probabilistic models: They account for uncertainty in the estimation of the network weights and, by making use of latent variables, can capture complex noise patterns…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-19 Stefan Depeweg , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Finale Doshi-Velez , Steffen Udluft

We introduce a class of acquisition functions for sample selection that leads to faster convergence in applications related to Bayesian experimental design and uncertainty quantification. The approach follows the paradigm of active…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-12 Antoine Blanchard , Themistoklis Sapsis

Bayesian deep learning (BDL) has emerged as a principled approach to produce reliable uncertainty estimates by integrating deep neural networks with Bayesian inference, and the selection of informative prior distributions remains a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Pengcheng Hao , Ercan Engin Kuruoglu