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Ensemble methods are known for enhancing the accuracy and robustness of machine learning models by combining multiple base learners. However, standard approaches like greedy or random ensembling often fall short, as they assume a constant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Sebastian Pineda Arango , Maciej Janowski , Lennart Purucker , Arber Zela , Frank Hutter , Josif Grabocka

Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-30 Tim Pearce , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ in machine learning (ML) and are growing increasingly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Devin M. McAfee , Elizabeth A. Barnes

High-resolution simulation models are essential for representing complex physical systems, yet their substantial computational cost severely limits the number of feasible high-fidelity (HF) evaluations. This problem is often addressed…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-21 Hossein Mohammadi

Unsupervised ensemble learning emerged to address the challenge of combining multiple learners' predictions without access to ground truth labels or additional data. This paradigm is crucial in scenarios where evaluating individual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Ariel Maymon , Yanir Buznah , Uri Shaham

Accurate estimation of uncertainty in deep learning is critical for deploying models in high-stakes domains such as medical diagnosis and autonomous decision-making, where overconfident predictions can lead to harmful outcomes. In practice,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Xinran Xu , Xiuyi Fan

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) often struggle with fine-grained perception, such as identifying small objects in high-resolution images or detecting key moments in long videos. Existing methods typically rely on complex,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-16 Sanghwan Kim , Rui Xiao , Stephan Alaniz , Yongqin Xian , Zeynep Akata

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Antonio Loquercio , Mattia Segù , Davide Scaramuzza

Ensemble learning is a standard approach to building machine learning systems that capture complex phenomena in real-world data. An important aspect of these systems is the complete and valid quantification of model uncertainty. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-12 Jeremiah Zhe Liu , John Paisley , Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou , Brent Coull

This work proposes a semantic segmentation network that produces high-quality uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass. We exploit general representations from foundation models and unlabelled datasets through a Masked Image Modeling…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-02-28 David S. W. Williams , Matthew Gadd , Paul Newman , Daniele De Martini

A critical factor in adopting machine learning for time-sensitive financial tasks is computational speed, including model training and inference. This paper demonstrates that a broad class of such problems, especially those previously…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-27 Liexin Cheng , Xue Cheng , Shuaiqiang Liu

Intelligence relies on an agent's knowledge of what it does not know. This capability can be assessed based on the quality of joint predictions of labels across multiple inputs. In principle, ensemble-based approaches produce effective…

Uncertainty estimation has been extensively studied in recent literature, which can usually be classified as aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. In current aleatoric uncertainty estimation frameworks, it is often neglected that…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Jing Zhang , Yuchao Dai , Mehrtash Harandi , Yiran Zhong , Nick Barnes , Richard Hartley

The topic of deep learning has seen a surge of interest in recent years both within and outside of the field of Statistics. Deep models leverage both nonlinearity and interaction effects to provide superior predictions in many cases when…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-18 Paul A. Parker , Scott H. Holan

Combining multiple modalities carrying complementary information through multimodal learning (MML) has shown considerable benefits for diagnosing multiple pathologies. However, the robustness of multimodal models to missing modalities is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Hava Chaptoukaev , Vincenzo Marcianó , Francesco Galati , Maria A. Zuluaga

Uncertainty estimation is a necessary component when implementing AI in high-risk settings, such as autonomous cars, medicine, or insurances. Large Language Models (LLMs) have seen a surge in popularity in recent years, but they are subject…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Gabriel Y. Arteaga , Thomas B. Schön , Nicolas Pielawski

Intelligibility and accurate uncertainty estimation are crucial for reliable decision-making. In this paper, we propose EviNAM, an extension of evidential learning that integrates the interpretability of Neural Additive Models (NAMs) with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Sören Schleibaum , Anton Frederik Thielmann , Julian Teusch , Benjamin Säfken , Jörg P. Müller

Existing methods for estimating uncertainty in deep learning tend to require multiple forward passes, making them unsuitable for applications where computational resources are limited. To solve this, we perform probabilistic reasoning over…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-08 Javier Antorán , James Urquhart Allingham , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Learning representations that accurately capture long-range dependencies in sequential inputs -- including text, audio, and genomic data -- is a key problem in deep learning. Feed-forward convolutional models capture only feature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-23 Sawyer Birnbaum , Volodymyr Kuleshov , Zayd Enam , Pang Wei Koh , Stefano Ermon

Ensemble learning has proven effective in boosting predictive performance, but traditional methods such as bagging, boosting, and dynamic ensemble selection (DES) suffer from high computational cost and limited adaptability to heterogeneous…

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