Related papers: Forecasting countries' gross domestic product from…
Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks.…
Cities are engines of the knowledge-based economy, because they are the primary sites of knowledge production activities that subsequently shape the rate and direction of technological change and economic growth. Patents provide a wealth of…
Even at the beginning of 2008, the economic recession of 2008/09 was not being predicted. The failure to predict recessions is a persistent theme in economic forecasting. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) provides data on…
UK GDP data is published with a lag time of more than a month and it is often adjusted for prior periods. This paper contemplates breaking away from the historic GDP measure to a more dynamic method using Bank Account, Cheque and Credit…
Despite global efforts to harmonize international trade statistics, our understanding of digital trade and its implications remains limited. Here, we introduce a method to estimate bilateral exports and imports for dozens of sectors…
We reconstruct a product-level input-output network based on firm-level import-export data of Italian firms. We show that the network has a statistically significant, yet nuanced trophic structure, which is evident at the product level but…
Real GDP growth rate in developed countries is found to be a sum of two terms. The first term is the reciprocal value of the duration of the period of mean income growth with work experience, Tcr. The current value of Tcr in the USA is 40…
The Theil index is much used in economy and finance; it looks like the Shannon entropy, but pertains to event values rather than to their probabilities. Any time series can be remapped through the Theil index. Correlation coefficients can…
We propose a simple model where the innovation rate of a technological domain depends on the innovation rate of the technological domains it relies on. Using data on US patents from 1836 to 2017, we make out-of-sample predictions and find…
We applied Deep Q-Network with a Convolutional Neural Network function approximator, which takes stock chart images as input, for making global stock market predictions. Our model not only yields profit in the stock market of the country…
The network of patents connected by citations is an evolving graph, which provides a representation of the innovation process. A patent citing another implies that the cited patent reflects a piece of previously existing knowledge that the…
In the dynamic landscape of continuous change, Machine Learning (ML) "nowcasting" models offer a distinct advantage for informed decision-making in both public and private sectors. This study introduces ML-based GDP growth projection models…
Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches…
We use citation data of scientific articles produced by individual nations in different scientific domains to determine the structure and efficiency of national research systems. We characterize the scientific fitness of each nation (that…
In its semi-strong form, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) implies that technical analysis will not reveal any hidden statistical trends via intermarket data analysis. If technical analysis on intermarket data reveals trends which can…
Research in Data Envelopment Analysis has created rankings of the ecological efficiency of countries' economies. At the same time, research in economic complexity has provided new methods to depict productive structures and has analyzed how…
Urban economic vitality is a crucial indicator of a city's long-term growth potential, comprising key metrics such as the annual number of new companies and the population employed. However, modeling urban economic vitality remains…
The impact of predictive algorithms on people's lives and livelihoods has been noted in medicine, criminal justice, finance, hiring and admissions. Most of these algorithms are developed using data and human capital from highly developed…
We consider a government that aims at reducing the debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of a country. The government observes the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio and an indicator of the state of the economy, but does not directly…
The statistical distances between countries, calculated for various moving average time windows, are mapped into the ultrametric subdominant space as in classical Minimal Spanning Tree methods. The Moving Average Minimal Length Path (MAMLP)…