Related papers: Forecasting countries' gross domestic product from…
The dynamics of innovation are nonlinear and complex: geographical, technological, and economic selection environments can be expected to interact. Can patents provide an analytical lens to this process in terms of different attributes such…
One of the most challenging problems in technological forecasting is to identify as early as possible those technologies that have the potential to lead to radical changes in our society. In this paper, we use the US patent citation network…
We propose a model that forecasts market correlation structure from link- and node-based financial network features using machine learning. For such, market structure is modeled as a dynamic asset network by quantifying time-dependent…
Geography, including climatic factors, have long been considered potentially important elements in shaping socio-economic activities, alongside other determinants, such as institutions. Here we demonstrate that geography and climate…
Today, the economy is greatly influenced by Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of the quantitative relations of AGI on the country's economic parameters. The authors use the analysis…
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky argued for challenging inside views (informed by contextual specifics) with outside views (based on historical "base rates" for certain event types). A reasonable inside view of the prospects for the global…
This study leverages narrative from global newspapers to construct theme-based knowledge graphs about world events, demonstrating that features extracted from such graphs improve forecasts of industrial production in three large economies…
We have studied the efficiency of research in the EU by a percentile-based citation approach that analyzes the distribution of country papers among the world papers. Going up in the citation scale, the frequency of papers from efficient…
The highly detailed international trade data among all countries in the world during 1971-2000 shows that the kinds of export goods and the logarithmic GDP (gross domestic production) of a country has an S-shaped relationship. This…
The transparency nature of Open Data is beneficial for citizens to evaluate government work performance. In Indonesia, each government bodies or ministry have their own standard operating procedure on data treatment resulting in incoherent…
Existing research argues that countries increase their production basket by adding products which require similar capabilities to those they already produce, a process referred to as path dependency. Green economic growth is a global…
This paper presents performance analysis of hybrid model comprise of concordance and Genetic Programming (GP) to forecast financial market with some existing models. This scheme can be used for in depth analysis of stock market. Different…
Motivated by the current fears of a potentially stagflationary global economic environment, this paper uses new and recently introduced mathematical techniques to study multivariate time series pertaining to country inflation (CPI),…
We show how the Shannon entropy function can be used as a basis to set up complexity measures weighting the economic efficiency of countries and the specialization of products beyond bare diversification. This entropy function guarantees…
Recent years have seen many attempts to combine expenditure-side estimates of U.S. real output (GDE) growth with income-side estimates (GDI) to improve estimates of real GDP growth. We show how to incorporate information from multiple…
For those concerned with the long-term value of their accounts, it can be a challenge to plan in the present for inflation-adjusted economic growth over coming decades. Here, I argue that there exists an economic constant that carries…
International trade policies have recently garnered attention for limiting cross-border exchange of essential goods (e.g. steel, aluminum, soybeans, and beef). Since trade critically affects employment and wages, predicting future patterns…
Forecasts for key macroeconomic variables are almost always made simultaneously by the same organizations, presented together, and used together in policy analyses and decision-makings. It is therefore important to know whether the…
We evaluate the informational content of news-based sentiment indicators for forecasting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other macroeconomic variables of the five major European economies. Our data set includes over 27 million articles for…
We consider the sectoral composition of a country's GDP, i.e. the partitioning into agrarian, industrial, and service sectors. Exploring a simple system of differential equations we characterize the transfer of GDP shares between the…