Related papers: Forecasting countries' gross domestic product from…
Over the years, the growing availability of extensive datasets about registered patents allowed researchers to better understand technological innovation drivers. In this work, we investigate how the technological contents of patents…
GDP is a vital measure of a country's economic health, reflecting the total value of goods and services produced. Forecasting GDP growth is essential for economic planning, as it helps governments, businesses, and investors anticipate…
To achieve inclusive green growth, countries need to consider a multiplicity of economic, social, and environmental factors. These are often captured by metrics of economic complexity derived from the geography of trade, thus missing key…
We are flooded with large-scale dynamic networked data. Analyses requiring exact comparisons between networks are computationally intractable, so new methodologies are sought. We extend the graphlet-based statistics to directed networks and…
How much knowledge is there in an economy? In recent years, data on the mix of products that countries export has been used to construct measures of economic complexity that estimate the knowledge available in an economy and predict future…
Economic forecasting is concerned with the estimation of some variable like gross domestic product (GDP) in the next period given a set of variables that describes the current situation or state of the economy, including industrial…
The GDP growth of national economies is modelled by the logistic function. Applying it on the GDP data of the World Bank till the year 2020, we forecast the outcome of the competitive GDP growth of Japan, Germany, UK and India, all of whose…
Predicting high-growth firms has attracted increasing interest from the technological forecasting and machine learning communities. Most existing studies primarily utilize financial data for these predictions. However, research suggests…
Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important economic indicator that aggregates useful information to assist economic agents and policymakers in their decision-making process. In this context, GDP forecasting becomes a powerful decision…
In recent decades, trade between nations has constituted an important component of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with official estimates showing that it likely accounted for a quarter of total global production. While evidence of…
The relatedness between a country or a firm and a product is a measure of the feasibility of that economic activity. As such, it is a driver for investments at a private and institutional level. Traditionally, relatedness is measured using…
Can we use data on the biographies of historical figures to estimate the GDP per capita of countries and regions? Here we introduce a machine learning method to estimate the GDP per capita of dozens of countries and hundreds of regions in…
Contrary to conventional economic growth theory, which reduces a country's output to one aggregate variable (GDP), product diversity is central to economic development, as recent 'economic complexity' research suggests. A country's product…
Development and growth are complex and tumultuous processes. Modern economic growth theories identify some key determinants of economic growth. However, the relative importance of the determinants remains unknown, and additional variables…
The concepts of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP per capita, and population are central to the study of political science and economics. However, a growing literature suggests that existing measures of these concepts contain considerable…
Among the proposed network models, the hidden variable (or good get richer) one is particularly interesting, even if an explicit empirical test of its hypotheses has not yet been performed on a real network. Here we provide the first…
In economic literature, economic complexity is typically approximated on the basis of an economy's gross export structure. However, in times of ever increasingly integrated global value chains, gross exports may convey an inaccurate image…
Evaluating the economies of countries and their relations with products in the global market is a central problem in economics, with far-reaching implications to our theoretical understanding of the international trade as well as to…
Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its {\it per capita} GDP ({\it gdp}) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay…
Economic complexity methods, and in particular relatedness measures, lack a systematic evaluation and comparison framework. We argue that out-of-sample forecast exercises should play this role, and we compare various machine learning models…