Related papers: Forecasting countries' gross domestic product from…
We present an integrated database suitable for the investigations of the Economic development of countries by using the Economic Fitness and Complexity framework. Firstly, we implement machine learning techniques to reconstruct the database…
Multivariate linear regression models suggest a trade-off in allocations of national R&D investments. Government funding, and spending in the higher education sector, seem to encourage publications, whereas other components such as…
The Economic Complexity Index (ECI; Hidalgo & Hausmann, 2009) measures the complexity of national economies in terms of product groups. Analogously to ECI, a Patent Complexity Index (PatCI) can be developed on the basis of a matrix of…
We have constructed a fitness parameter, characterizing the intrinsic attractiveness for patents to be cited, from attributes of the associated inventions known at the time a patent is granted. This exogenously obtained fitness is shown to…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of…
Despite the growing importance of the digital sector, research on economic complexity and its implications continues to rely mostly on administrative records, e.g. data on exports, patents, and employment, that have blind spots when it…
A recent paper by Hausmann and collaborators (1) reaches the important conclusion that Complexity-weighted diversification is the essential element to predict country growth. We like this result because Complexity-weighted diversification…
Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between…
We develop a machine-learning-based method, Principal Smooth-Dynamics Analysis (PriSDA), to identify patterns in economic development and to automate the development of new theory of economic dynamics. Traditionally, economic growth is…
This study examines the relationship between GDP growth and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) across developed economies (G7, EU-15, OECD) and emerging markets (BRICS). We integrate Random Forest machine learning (non-linear regression)…
Debates over the trade-offs between specialization and diversification have long intrigued scholars and policymakers. Specialization can amplify an economy by concentrating on core strengths, while diversification reduces vulnerability by…
Using the economic complexity methodology on data for disease prevalence in 195 countries during the period of 1990-2016, we propose two new metrics for quantifying the relatedness between diseases, or the `disease space' of countries. With…
Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United…
We use the logistic equation to model the dynamics of the GDP and the trade of the six countries with the highest GDP in the world, namely, USA, China, Japan, Germany, UK and India. From the modelling of the economic data, which are made…
We present an empirical analysis of the network formed by the trade relationships between all world countries, or World Trade Web (WTW). Each (directed) link is weighted by the amount of wealth flowing between two countries, and each…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components, a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc…
A rich theoretical and empirical literature investigated the link between export diversification and firm performance. Prior theoretical works hinted at the key role of capability accumulation in shaping production activities and…
The goal of this research is to uncover the channels through which research and development (R&D) impacts economic growth in developing countries. The study employed nine variables from three broader categories in the World Economic Forum…
I propose a new terminology, international trade strength, which is defined as the ratio of a country's total international trade to its GDP. This parameter represents a country's ability to generate international trade by utilizing its…
The paper deals with the construction of a synthetic indicator of economic growth, obtained by projecting a quarterly measure of aggregate economic activity, namely gross domestic product (GDP), into the space spanned by a finite number of…