Related papers: Large deviations for perturbed Gaussian processes …
We consider the semi-parametric estimation of a scale parameter of a one-dimensional Gaussian process with known smoothness. We suggest an estimator based on quadratic variations and on the moment method. We provide asymptotic…
We introduce a new interpretation of sparse variational approximations for Gaussian processes using inducing points, which can lead to more scalable algorithms than previous methods. It is based on decomposing a Gaussian process as a sum of…
Large deviations principle is obtained for terminating multidimensional compound renewal processes. We also obtained the asymptotic of large deviations for the case when a Gibbs change of the original probability measure takes place. The…
We study a one-dimensional elliptic problem with highly oscillatory random diffusion coefficient. We derive a homogenized solution and a so-called Gaussian corrector. We also prove a "pointwise" large deviation principle (LDP) for the full…
Gaussian Process (GP) models are a powerful tool in probabilistic machine learning with a solid theoretical foundation. Thanks to current advances, modeling complex data with GPs is becoming increasingly feasible, which makes them an…
Gaussian couplings of partial sum processes are derived for the high-dimensional regime $d=o(n^{1/3})$. The coupling is derived for sums of independent random vectors and subsequently extended to nonstationary time series. Our inequalities…
Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) can model complex marginal densities as well as complex mappings. Non-Gaussian marginals are essential for modelling real-world data, and can be generated from the DGP by incorporating uncorrelated variables…
The term moderate deviations is often used in the literature to mean a class of large deviation principles that, in some sense, fills the gap between a convergence in probability of some random variables to a constant and a weak convergence…
Maximum likelihood estimators for time-dependent mean functions within Gaussian processes are provided in the context of continuous observations. We find the widest possible class of mean functions for which the likelihood function can be…
A continuous-time regression model with a jointly strictly sub-Gaussian random noise is considered in the paper. Upper exponential bounds for probabilities of large deviations of the least squares estimator for the regression parameter are…
Monge-Kantorovich distances, otherwise known as Wasserstein distances, have received a growing attention in statistics and machine learning as a powerful discrepancy measure for probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on…
The large deviation principle in the small noise limit is derived for solutions of possibly degenerate It\^o stochastic differential equations with predictable coefficients, which may depend also on the large deviation parameter. The result…
This work leverages recent advances in probabilistic machine learning to discover conservation laws expressed by parametric linear equations. Such equations involve, but are not limited to, ordinary and partial differential,…
We establish sharp large-deviation asymptotic estimates for the maximum order statistic of i.i.d.\ standard normal random variables on all Borel subsets of the positive real line. This result yields more accurate tail approximations than…
We consider a non-stationary Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process. We establish a sharp large deviation principle for the maximum likelihood estimator of its drift parameter.
By using the large deviation principle, we investigate the expected exit time from the interval [-1,1] of a process of autoregressive type. The case when the autoregression function f is linear and the innovations have a normal distribution…
We study the use of Gaussian process emulators to approximate the parameter-to-observation map or the negative log-likelihood in Bayesian inverse problems. We prove error bounds on the Hellinger distance between the true posterior…
In this paper we establish the large deviation principle for the stochastic quasi-geostrophic equation in the subcritical case with small multiplicative noise. The proof is mainly based on the stochastic control and weak convergence…
We present a novel extension of multi-output Gaussian processes for handling heterogeneous outputs. We assume that each output has its own likelihood function and use a vector-valued Gaussian process prior to jointly model the parameters in…
The paper presents a systematic theory for asymptotic inference of autocovariances of stationary processes. We consider nonparametric tests for serial correlations based on the maximum (or ${\cal L}^\infty$) and the quadratic (or ${\cal…