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Adaptive importance sampling is a class of techniques for finding good proposal distributions for importance sampling. Often the proposal distributions are standard probability distributions whose parameters are adapted based on the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-10 Topi Paananen , Juho Piironen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

We study the sampling problem for the ferromagnetic Ising model with consistent external fields, and in particular, Swendsen-Wang dynamics on this model. We introduce a new grand model unifying two closely related models: the subgraph world…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Weiming Feng , Heng Guo , Jiaheng Wang

Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) is a popular algorithm used to estimates the intractable marginal likelihood of deep generative models. Although AIS is guaranteed to provide unbiased estimate for any set of hyperparameters, the common…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-11 Shirin Goshtasbpour , Fernando Perez-Cruz

Adaptive importance sampling is a widely spread Monte Carlo technique that uses a re-weighting strategy to iteratively estimate the so-called target distribution. A major drawback of adaptive importance sampling is the large variance of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-01 Anna Korba , François Portier

This study presents an importance sampling formulation based on adaptively relaxing parameters from the indicator function and/or the probability density function. The formulation embodies the prevalent mathematical concept of relaxing a…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-11 Jianhua Xian , Ziqi Wang

An essential problem in statistics and machine learning is the estimation of expectations involving PDFs with intractable normalizing constants. The self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS) estimator, which normalizes the IS weights, has…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-01 Nicola Branchini , Víctor Elvira

Estimating the parameters of compact binaries which coalesce and produce gravitational waves is a challenging Bayesian inverse problem. Gravitational-wave parameter estimation lies within the class of multifidelity problems, where a variety…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-05-31 Bassel Saleh , Aaron Zimmerman , Peng Chen , Omar Ghattas

We show that the mixing time of Glauber (single edge update) dynamics for the random cluster model at $q=2$ is bounded by a polynomial in the size of the underlying graph. As a consequence, the Swendsen-Wang algorithm for the ferromagnetic…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2016-05-03 Heng Guo , Mark Jerrum

A generic algorithm for the extraction of probabilistic (Bayesian) information about model parameters from data is presented. The algorithm propagates an ensemble of particles in the product space of model parameters and outputs. Each…

Computation · Statistics 2015-09-18 Carlo Albert

We propose a novel adaptive importance sampling scheme for Bayesian inversion problems where the inference of the variables of interest and the power of the data noise is split. More specifically, we consider a Bayesian analysis for the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-27 L. Martino , F. Llorente , E. Curbelo , J. Lopez-Santiago , J. Miguez

Given an unnormalized target distribution we want to obtain approximate samples from it and a tight lower bound on its (log) normalization constant log Z. Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) with Hamiltonian MCMC is a powerful method that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Tomas Geffner , Justin Domke

Importance sampling is a rare event simulation technique used in Monte Carlo simulations to bias the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By assigning appropriate weights to sampled points, importance sampling allows…

The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) is a deterministic approach to Bayesian inference on latent Gaussian models (LGMs) and focuses on fast and accurate approximation of posterior marginals for the parameters in the models.…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-05 Martin Outzen Berild , Sara Martino , Virgilio Gómez-Rubio , Håvard Rue

The importance sampling (IS) method lies at the core of many Monte Carlo-based techniques. IS allows the approximation of a target probability distribution by drawing samples from a proposal (or importance) distribution, different from the…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-21 Manuel A. Vázquez , Joaquín Míguez

Importance Sampling methods are broadly used to approximate posterior distributions or some of their moments. In its standard approach, samples are drawn from a single proposal distribution and weighted properly. However, since the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-05 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

In this paper, we study the annealed ferromagnetic Ising model on the configuration model. In an annealed system, we take the average on both sides of the ratio {defining the Boltzmann-Gibbs measure of the Ising model}. In the configuration…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-16 Van Hao Can , Cristian Giardinà , Claudio Giberti , Remco van der Hofstad

The population annealing algorithm is a population-based equilibrium version of simulated annealing. It can sample thermodynamic systems with rough free-energy landscapes more efficiently than standard Markov chain Monte Carlo alone. A…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-01-17 Denis Gessert , Wolfhard Janke , Martin Weigel

Mode collapse, the failure to capture one or more modes when targetting a multimodal distribution, is a central challenge in modern variational inference. In this work, we provide a mathematical analysis of annealing based strategies for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-16 Luigi Fogliani , Bruno Loureiro , Marylou Gabrié

In machine learning models, the estimation of errors is often complex due to distribution bias, particularly in spatial data such as those found in environmental studies. We introduce an approach based on the ideas of importance sampling to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-15 Boris Prokhorov , Diana Koldasbayeva , Alexey Zaytsev

Sequential importance sampling algorithms have been defined to estimate likelihoods in models of ancestral population processes. However, these algorithms are based on features of the models with constant population size, and become…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Coralie Merle , Raphaël Leblois , François Rousset , Pierre Pudlo