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Stochastic reduced-order models are widely used to represent the effective dynamics of complex systems, but estimating their drift and diffusion coefficients from data remains challenging. Standard approaches often rely on short-time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-28 Ludovico T. Giorgini

Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) have emerged as a promising non-autoregressive paradigm for generative tasks, offering parallel decoding and bidirectional context utilization. However, current sampling methods rely on simple confidence-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Shreshth Saini , Avinab Saha , Balu Adsumilli , Neil Birkbeck , Yilin Wang , Alan C. Bovik

Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-21 Justin Domke

Pedestrian trajectory prediction is crucial for several applications such as robotics and self-driving vehicles. Significant progress has been made in the past decade thanks to the availability of pedestrian trajectory datasets, which…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Pranav Singh Chib , Pravendra Singh

Trajectories represent the mobility of moving objects and thus is of great value in data mining applications. However, trajectory data is enormous in volume, so it is expensive to store and process the raw data directly. Trajectories are…

Databases · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Yunheng Han , Hanan Samet

We consider a process $X^\ve$ that solves a stochastic Volterra equation with an unknown parameter $\theta^\star$ in the drift function. The Volterra kernel is singular, and includes as an example, $K\_0(u)=c u^{\alpha-1/2} \id{u>0}$ with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-21 Arnaud Gloter , Nakahiro Yoshida

Recently, diffusion models have gained popularity and attention in trajectory optimization due to their capability of modeling multi-modal probability distributions. However, addressing nonlinear equality constraints, i.e, dynamic…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Jushan Chen , Santiago Paternain

Variational inference is a technique that approximates a target distribution by optimizing within the parameter space of variational families. On the other hand, Wasserstein gradient flows describe optimization within the space of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-01 Mingxuan Yi , Song Liu

Connecting optimal transport and variational inference, we present a principled and systematic framework for sampling and generative modelling centred around divergences on path space. Our work culminates in the development of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-08 Francisco Vargas , Shreyas Padhy , Denis Blessing , Nikolas Nüsken

We propose a new framework to estimate the evolution of an ensemble of indistinguishable agents on a hidden Markov chain using only aggregate output data. This work can be viewed as an extension of the recent developments in optimal mass…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-01 Isabel Haasler , Axel Ringh , Yongxin Chen , Johan Karlsson

We introduce a novel framework for efficient sampling from complex, unnormalised target distributions by exploiting multiscale dynamics. Traditional score-based sampling methods either rely on learned approximations of the score function or…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-04 Paula Cordero-Encinar , Andrew B. Duncan , Sebastian Reich , O. Deniz Akyildiz

Accurately imputing traffic flow at unsensed locations is difficult: loop detectors provide precise but sparse measurements, speed from probe vehicles is widely available yet only weakly correlated with flow, and nearby links often exhibit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Mohammadmahdi Rahimiasl , Ynte Vanderhoydonc , Siegfried Mercelis

This paper is concerned with inference on the regression function of a high-dimensional linear model when outcomes are missing at random. We propose an estimator which combines a Lasso pilot estimate of the regression function with a bias…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-11 Yikun Zhang , Alexander Giessing , Yen-Chi Chen

Flow-based methods for sampling and generative modeling use continuous-time dynamical systems to represent a {transport map} that pushes forward a source measure to a target measure. The introduction of a time axis provides considerable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-19 Panos Tsimpos , Zhi Ren , Jakob Zech , Youssef Marzouk

Modern statistical inference tasks often require iterative optimization methods to compute the solution. Convergence analysis from an optimization viewpoint only informs us how well the solution is approximated numerically but overlooks the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-27 Tengyuan Liang , Weijie Su

We introduce a novel statistical measure for MCMC-mean estimation, the inter-trace variance ${\rm trv}^{(\tau_{rel})}({\cal M},f)$, which depends on a Markov chain ${\cal M}$ and a function $f:S\to [a,b]$. The inter-trace variance can be…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2021-08-06 Cyrus Cousins , Shahrzad Haddadan , Eli Upfal

By building upon the recent theory that established the connection between implicit generative modeling (IGM) and optimal transport, in this study, we propose a novel parameter-free algorithm for learning the underlying distributions of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-12 Antoine Liutkus , Umut Şimşekli , Szymon Majewski , Alain Durmus , Fabian-Robert Stöter

We study generative modeling for time series using entropic optimal transport and the Schr\"odinger bridge (SB) framework, with a focus on applications in finance and energy modeling. Extending the diffusion-based approach of Hamdouche,…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-24 Stefano De Marco , Huyên Pham , Davide Zanni

We propose a framework for computing, optimizing and integrating with respect to a smooth marginal likelihood in statistical models that involve high-dimensional parameters/latent variables and continuous low-dimensional hyperparameters.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon , Jonathan Weare

We develop a new method for bounding the relative entropy of a random vector in terms of its Stein factors. Our approach is based on a novel representation for the score function of smoothly perturbed random variables, as well as on the de…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-08-20 Ivan Nourdin , Giovanni Peccati , Yvik Swan
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