Related papers: A Multivariate Hawkes Process Model for Stablecoin…
We introduce a micro-velocity framework for analysing the on-chain circulation of Lidos liquid-staking tokens, stETH, and its wrapped ERC-20 form, wstETH. By reconstructing full transfer and share-based accounting histories, we compute…
Multivariate data sources with components of different information value seem to appear frequently in practice. Models in which the components change their homogeneity at different times are of significant importance. The fact whether any…
Cryptocurrency is a form of digital currency using cryptographic techniques in a decentralized system for secure peer-to-peer transactions. It is gaining much popularity over traditional methods of payments because it facilitates a very…
Abstract. Most of the real world data we encounter are asynchronous event sequence, so the last decades have been characterized by the implementation of various point process into the field of social networks,electronic medical records and…
We establish the weak convergence of the intensity of a nearly-unstable Hawkes process with heavy-tailed kernel. Our result is used to derive a scaling limit for a financial market model where orders to buy or sell an asset arrive according…
Recent empirical evidence has highlighted the crucial role of jumps in both price and volatility within the cryptocurrency market. In this paper, we integrate price--volatility co-jumps and volatility short-term dependency into a coherent…
The Hawkes process is a class of point processes whose future depends on their own history. Previous theoretical work on the Hawkes process is limited to a special case in which a past event can only increase the occurrence of future…
The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…
We define a new model using a Hawkes process as a subordinator in a standard Brownian motion. We demonstrate that this Hawkes subordinated Brownian motion or more succinctly, variance-Hawkes process can be fit to 2018 and 2019 natural gas…
We propose a new financial model, the stochastic volatility model with sticky drawdown and drawup processes (SVSDU model), which enables us to capture the features of winning and losing streaks that are common across financial markets but…
This paper studies the forecasting ability of cryptocurrency time series. This study is about the four most capitalized cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple. Different Bayesian models are compared, including models with…
We consider online monitoring of the network event data to detect local changes in a cluster when the affected data stream distribution shifts from one point process to another with different parameters. Specifically, we are interested in…
Price stability has often been cited as a key reason that cryptocurrencies have not gained widespread adoption as a medium of exchange and continue to prove incapable of powering the economy of decentralized applications (DApps)…
Bitcoin is a popular digital currency for online payments, realized as a decentralized peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Bitcoin keeps a ledger of all transactions; the majority of the participants decides on the correct ledger. Since…
We study a multivariate Hawkes process as a model for time-continuous relational event networks. The model does not assume the network to be known, it includes covariates, and it allows for both common drivers, parameters common to all the…
Due to its clustering and self-exciting properties, the Hawkes process has been used extensively in numerous fields ranging from sismology to finance. Since data is often aquired on regular time intervals, we propose a piece-wise constant…
We study the limit of the joint distribution of a multidimensional Generalized Tempered Stable (GTS) process and its quadratic covariation process when the stable index tends to two. Under a proper scaling, the GTS processes converges to a…
This paper introduces a unique and valuable research design aimed at analyzing Bitcoin price volatility. To achieve this, a range of models from the Markov Switching-GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility (SARV) model classes are…
Silkswap is an automated market maker model designed for efficient stablecoin trading with minimal price impact. The original purpose of Silkswap is to facilitate the trading of fiat-pegged stablecoins with the stablecoin Silk, but it can…
We show that infinite divisibility of a trading commodity leads to a self-sustained price bubble when traders use adaptive investment strategies. The adaptive strategy can be viewed as a psychological response of a trader to the situation…