Related papers: The multivariate ARMA/CARMA transformation relatio…
In this paper we introduce a new model named CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes process as the Hawkes model with exponential kernel implies a strictly decreasing behaviour of the autocorrelation function and empirically evidences reject the monotonicity…
Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models are a class of models that was developed for extending the univariate Gaussian ARMA time series model to a flexible observation-driven model for non-Gaussian time series data. This…
In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient two-stage variable selection approach for sparse GLARMA models, which are pervasive for modeling discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining the estimation of…
We propose a novel and efficient iterative two-stage variable selection approach for multivariate sparse GLARMA models, which can be used for modelling multivariate discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining…
The AAA algorithm has become a popular tool for data-driven rational approximation of single variable functions, such as transfer functions of a linear dynamical system. In the setting of parametric dynamical systems appearing in many…
We prove strong convergence of order $1/4-\epsilon$ for arbitrarily small $\epsilon>0$ of the Euler-Maruyama method for multidimensional stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with discontinuous drift and degenerate diffusion coefficient.…
Using statistical physics methods, we study generative diffusion models in the regime where the dimension of space and the number of data are large, and the score function has been trained optimally. Our analysis reveals three distinct…
Mandatory emission trading schemes are being established around the world. Participants of such market schemes are always exposed to risks. This leads to the creation of an accompanying market for emission-linked derivatives. To evaluate…
In this paper we suggest two continuous-time models which exhibit an autoregressive structure. We obtain existence and uniqueness results and study the structure of the solution processes. One of the models, which corresponds to general…
A dynamical system with discrete time is studied by means of algebraic geometry. The system admits a reduction that is interpreted as a classical field theory in 2+1-dimensional wholly discrete space-time. The integrals of motion of a…
We investigate the two-points correlation function for several boundary-driven interacting particle systems. Our goal is to show that the time evolution of that correlation function is solution to a partial differential equation that can be…
The real life time series are usually nonstationary, bringing a difficult question of model adaptation. Classical approaches like ARMA-ARCH assume arbitrary type of dependence. To avoid their bias, we will focus on recently proposed…
The paper considers the problem to estimate a graphical model corresponding to an autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) Gaussian stochastic process. We propose a new maximum entropy covariance and cepstral extension problem and we show that…
We use the framework of multivariate regular variation to analyse the extremal behaviour of preferential attachment models. To this end, we follow a directed linear preferential attachment model for a random, heavy-tailed number of steps in…
We establish a recursive representation that fully decouples jumps from a large class of multivariate inhomogeneous stochastic differential equations with jumps of general time-state dependent unbounded intensity, not of L\'evy-driven type…
Dynamic model averaging (DMA) combines the forecasts of a large number of dynamic linear models (DLMs) to predict the future value of a time series. The performance of DMA critically depends on the appropriate choice of two forgetting…
Convergence of stochastic processes with jumps to diffusion processes is investigated in the case when the limit process has discontinuous coefficients. An example is given in which the diffusion approximation of a queueing model yields a…
In this paper, we introduce the concept of fractional integration for spatial autoregressive models. We show that the range of the dependence can be spatially extended or diminished by introducing a further fractional integration parameter…
We discuss velocity-jump models for chemotaxis of bacteria with an internal state that allows the velocity jump rate to depend on the memory of the chemoattractant concentration along their path of motion. Using probabilistic techniques, we…
Stationary and ergodic time series can be constructed using an s-vine decomposition based on sets of bivariate copula functions. The extension of such processes to infinite copula sequences is considered and shown to yield a rich class of…