Related papers: Quantifying rare events in spotting: How far do wi…
Forest fire spreading is a complex phenomenon characterized by a stochastic behavior. Nowadays, the enormous quantity of georeferenced data and the availability of powerful techniques for their analysis can provide a very careful picture of…
We consider the estimation of small probabilities or other risk quantities associated with rare but catastrophic events. In the model-based literature, much of the focus has been devoted to efficient Monte Carlo computation or analytical…
Transport and acceleration of charged particles in turbulent media is a topic of great interest in space physics and interstellar astrophysics. These processes are dominated by the scattering of particles off magnetic irregularities. The…
Wildfires propagate through intricate interactions between wind, fuel, and terrain, resulting in complex behaviors that pose challenges for accurate predictions. This study investigates the interaction between wind velocity topology and…
A two-dimensional model of wildfire spread and merger is presented. Three features affect the fire propagation: (i) a constant basic rate of spread term accounting for radiative and convective heat transfer, (ii) the unidirectional,…
The objective of the present study is twofold. First, the last developments and validation results of a hybrid model designed to simulate fire patterns in heterogeneous landscapes are presented. The model combines the features of a…
Wildfire propagation is a highly stochastic process where small changes in environmental conditions (such as wind speed and direction) can lead to large changes in observed behaviour. A traditional approach to quantify uncertainty in…
The increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires underscore the need for accurate predictive models to enhance wildfire management. Traditional models, such as Rothermel and FARSITE, provide foundational insights but often oversimplify…
The availability of wildland fire propagation models with parameters estimated in an accurate way starting from measurements of fire fronts is crucial to predict the evolution of fire and allocate resources for firefighting. Thus, we…
This study investigates the role of topography-induced turbulence, generated by an idealized urban region, in the transport of firebrands and risk of spotting. Flight dispersion, deposition, and smoldering state of tens of thousands of…
Computational simulations of wildfire spread typically employ empirical rate-of-spread calculations under various conditions (such as terrain, fuel type, weather). Small perturbations in conditions can often lead to significant changes in…
Interacting particle systems with many degrees of freedom may undergo phase transitions to sustain atypical fluctuations of dynamical observables such as the current or the activity. This leads in some cases to symmetry-broken space-time…
Wildfires can be devastating, causing significant damage to property, ecosystem disruption, and loss of life. Forecasting the evolution of wildfire boundaries is essential to real-time wildfire management. To this end, substantial attention…
Recent wildfires in the United States have resulted in loss of life and billions of dollars, destroying countless structures and forests. Fighting wildfires is extremely complex. It is difficult to observe the true state of fires due to…
We present a Monte Carlo simulation for the scattering of light in the case of an isotropic light source. The scattering phase functions are studied particularly in detail to understand how they can affect the multiple light scattering in…
Due to climate change, the extreme wildfire has become one of the most dangerous natural hazards to human civilization. Even though, some wildfires may be initially caused by human activity, but the spread of wildfires is mainly determined…
We describe a method for detecting, locating and quantifying sources of gas emissions to the atmosphere using remotely obtained gas concentration data; the method is applicable to gases of environmental concern. We demonstrate its…
We consider the task of assessing the righthand tail of an insurer's loss distribution for some specified period, such as a year. We present and analyse six different approaches: four upper bounds, and two approximations. We examine these…
The safety concern for unmanned systems, namely the concern for the potential casualty caused by system abnormalities, has been a bottleneck for their development, especially in populated areas. Evidently, the collision between the unmanned…
Wildfire forecasting problems usually rely on complex grid-based mathematical models, mostly involving Computational fluid dynamics(CFD) and Celluar Automata, but these methods have always been computationally expensive and difficult to…