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Related papers: Quantifying rare events in spotting: How far do wi…

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Forest fire spreading is a complex phenomenon characterized by a stochastic behavior. Nowadays, the enormous quantity of georeferenced data and the availability of powerful techniques for their analysis can provide a very careful picture of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-09-06 Roberto Beneduci , Giovanni Mascali

We consider the estimation of small probabilities or other risk quantities associated with rare but catastrophic events. In the model-based literature, much of the focus has been devoted to efficient Monte Carlo computation or analytical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-02 Zhiyuan Huang , Henry Lam , Zhenyuan Liu

Transport and acceleration of charged particles in turbulent media is a topic of great interest in space physics and interstellar astrophysics. These processes are dominated by the scattering of particles off magnetic irregularities. The…

Space Physics · Physics 2016-12-28 A. Ivascenko , S. Lange , F. Spanier , R. Vainio

Wildfires propagate through intricate interactions between wind, fuel, and terrain, resulting in complex behaviors that pose challenges for accurate predictions. This study investigates the interaction between wind velocity topology and…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-04-23 Siva Viknesh , Ali Tohidi , Fatemeh Afghah , Rob Stoll , Amirhossein Arzani

A two-dimensional model of wildfire spread and merger is presented. Three features affect the fire propagation: (i) a constant basic rate of spread term accounting for radiative and convective heat transfer, (ii) the unidirectional,…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-08-13 Samuel J. Harris , N. R. McDonald

The objective of the present study is twofold. First, the last developments and validation results of a hybrid model designed to simulate fire patterns in heterogeneous landscapes are presented. The model combines the features of a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-02-08 Mohamed Drissi

Wildfire propagation is a highly stochastic process where small changes in environmental conditions (such as wind speed and direction) can lead to large changes in observed behaviour. A traditional approach to quantify uncertainty in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-04 Andrew Bolt , Conrad Sanderson , Joel Janek Dabrowski , Carolyn Huston , Petra Kuhnert

The increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires underscore the need for accurate predictive models to enhance wildfire management. Traditional models, such as Rothermel and FARSITE, provide foundational insights but often oversimplify…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-30 Hengameh R. Dehkordi

The availability of wildland fire propagation models with parameters estimated in an accurate way starting from measurements of fire fronts is crucial to predict the evolution of fire and allocate resources for firefighting. Thus, we…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-12-21 Angelo Alessandri , Patrizia Bagnerini , Mauro Gaggero , Luca Mantelli

This study investigates the role of topography-induced turbulence, generated by an idealized urban region, in the transport of firebrands and risk of spotting. Flight dispersion, deposition, and smoldering state of tens of thousands of…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-12-22 Iago Dal-Ri dos Santos , Neda Yaghoobian

Computational simulations of wildfire spread typically employ empirical rate-of-spread calculations under various conditions (such as terrain, fuel type, weather). Small perturbations in conditions can often lead to significant changes in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Andrew Bolt , Carolyn Huston , Petra Kuhnert , Joel Janek Dabrowski , James Hilton , Conrad Sanderson

Interacting particle systems with many degrees of freedom may undergo phase transitions to sustain atypical fluctuations of dynamical observables such as the current or the activity. This leads in some cases to symmetry-broken space-time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-08-23 Carlos Pérez-Espigares , Pablo I. Hurtado

Wildfires can be devastating, causing significant damage to property, ecosystem disruption, and loss of life. Forecasting the evolution of wildfire boundaries is essential to real-time wildfire management. To this end, substantial attention…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-13 Myungsoo Yoo , Christopher K. Wikle

Recent wildfires in the United States have resulted in loss of life and billions of dollars, destroying countless structures and forests. Fighting wildfires is extremely complex. It is difficult to observe the true state of fires due to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-10-16 Tina Diao , Samriddhi Singla , Ayan Mukhopadhyay , Ahmed Eldawy , Ross Shachter , Mykel Kochenderfer

We present a Monte Carlo simulation for the scattering of light in the case of an isotropic light source. The scattering phase functions are studied particularly in detail to understand how they can affect the multiple light scattering in…

Optics · Physics 2013-10-15 J. Colombi , K. Louedec

Due to climate change, the extreme wildfire has become one of the most dangerous natural hazards to human civilization. Even though, some wildfires may be initially caused by human activity, but the spread of wildfires is mainly determined…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-13 Qijun Chen , Shaofan Li

We describe a method for detecting, locating and quantifying sources of gas emissions to the atmosphere using remotely obtained gas concentration data; the method is applicable to gases of environmental concern. We demonstrate its…

Applications · Statistics 2015-06-12 Bill Hirst , Philip Jonathan , Fernando Gonzalez del Cueto , David Randell , Oliver Kosut

We consider the task of assessing the righthand tail of an insurer's loss distribution for some specified period, such as a year. We present and analyse six different approaches: four upper bounds, and two approximations. We examine these…

Applications · Statistics 2015-07-08 Isabella Gollini , Jonathan Rougier

The safety concern for unmanned systems, namely the concern for the potential casualty caused by system abnormalities, has been a bottleneck for their development, especially in populated areas. Evidently, the collision between the unmanned…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-03-10 Zhang Hepeng , Quan Quan

Wildfire forecasting problems usually rely on complex grid-based mathematical models, mostly involving Computational fluid dynamics(CFD) and Celluar Automata, but these methods have always been computationally expensive and difficult to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-21 Hansong Xiao