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Bayesian inversions followed by estimations of rare event probabilities are often needed to analyse groundwater hazards. Instead of focusing on the posterior distribution of model parameters, the main interest lies then in the distribution…
The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall…
We are interested in bounding probabilities of rare events in the context of computer experiments. These rare events depend on the output of a physical model with random input variables. Since the model is only known through an expensive…
One of the impacts of climate change is the difficulty of tree regrowth after wildfires over areas that traditionally were covered by certain tree species. Here a deep learning model is customized to classify land covers from four-band…
We propose a neural approach for estimating spatially varying light selection distributions to improve importance sampling in Monte Carlo rendering, particularly for complex scenes with many light sources. Our method uses a neural network…
The multiple scattering of an ultrashort laser pulse by a turbid dispersive medium (namely a cloud of bubbles in water) is investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The theory of Gouesbet and Gr\'ehan [Part. Part. Syst. Charact. 17…
The problem of flame propagation is studied as an example of unstable fronts that wrinkle on many scales is studied. The analytic tool of pole expansion in the complex plane is emloyed to address the interaction of the unstable growth…
Extreme mesoscale weather, including tropical cyclones, squall lines, and floods, can be enormously damaging and yet challenging to simulate; hence, there is a pressing need for more efficient simulation strategies. Here we present a new…
Monte Carlo-transport codes are designed to simulate the complex neutron transport physics associated with nuclear systems. These codes are tasked with simulating phenomena such as temperature effects on cross-sections, thermo-physical…
The ratio between the probability that two distributions $R$ and $P$ give to points $x$ are known as importance weights or propensity scores and play a fundamental role in many different fields, most notably, statistics and machine…
Identifying regions that have high likelihood for wildfires is a key component of land and forestry management and disaster preparedness. We create a data set by aggregating nearly a decade of remote-sensing data and historical fire records…
We often rely on probabilistic measures -- e.g. event probability or expected time -- to characterize systems' safety. However, determining these quantities for extremely low-probability events is generally challenging, as standard safety…
Wind dispersal of seeds is one essential mechanisms for plants to proliferate and to invade new territories. In this paper we present a methodology that combines 3D-printing, a minimal theoretical model and experiments to determine the…
The increasing incidence and severity of wildfires underscores the necessity of accurately predicting their behavior. While high-fidelity models derived from first principles offer physical accuracy, they are too computationally expensive…
The notion of drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution, which is underlying the observed data, changes over time. Albeit many attempts were made to deal with drift, formal notions of drift are application-dependent and…
The light pollution levels experienced at any given site generally depend on a wide number of artificial light sources distributed throughout the surrounding territory. Since photons can travel long distances before being scattered by the…
We propose a method to mitigate heavy-tailed distributions in fermion Quantum Monte Carlo simulations originating from zeros of the fermion determinant. In this case the second moment of the observables might be not well defined, and we…
A simple Monte Carlo procedure is described for simulating the multiple scattering and absorption of electrons with the incident energy in the range 1-50 keV moving through a slab of uniformly distributed material of given atomic number,…
Various flame tracking techniques are often used in hydrodynamic simulations. Their use is indispensable when resolving actual scale of the flame is impossible. We show that parameters defining "artificial flame" propagation found from…
Metrics for rigorously defining a distance between two events have been used to study the properties of the dataspace manifold of particle collider physics. The probability distribution of pairwise distances on this dataspace is unique with…