Related papers: Volatility Sensitive Bayesian Estimation of Portfo…
Data assimilation refers to a set of algorithms designed to compute the optimal estimate of a system's state by refining the prior prediction (known as background states) using observed data. Variational assimilation methods rely on the…
Volatility prediction in the financial market helps to understand the profit and involved risks in investment. However, due to irregularities, high fluctuations, and noise in the time series, predicting volatility poses a challenging task.…
The standard approach for constructing a Mean-Variance portfolio involves estimating parameters for the model using collected samples. However, since the distribution of future data may not resemble that of the training set, the…
In this paper, we introduce two alternative extensions of the classical univariate Value-at-Risk (VaR) in a multivariate setting. The two proposed multivariate VaR are vector-valued measures with the same dimension as the underlying risk…
Models for heteroskedastic data are relevant in a wide variety of applications ranging from financial time series to environmental statistics. However, the topic of modeling the variance function conditionally has not seen near as much…
The study of long-horizon returns has received a great deal of attention in recent years (see, for example, Boudoukh, Richardson, and Whitelaw (2008), Neuberger (2012) and Lee (2013), Fama and French (2018)). While most of the discussions…
In multivariate time series, the estimation of the covariance matrix of the observation innovations plays an important role in forecasting as it enables the computation of the standardized forecast error vectors as well as it enables the…
We consider Bayesian tensor vector autoregressions (TVARs) in which the VAR coefficients are arranged as a three-dimensional array or tensor, and this coefficient tensor is parameterized using a low-rank CP decomposition. We develop a…
Data clustering, including problems such as finding network communities, can be put into a systematic framework by means of a Bayesian approach. The application of Bayesian approaches to real problems can be, however, quite challenging. In…
We employ a Bayesian modelling technique for high dimensional cointegration estimation to construct low volatility portfolios from a large number of stocks. The proposed Bayesian framework effectively identifies sparse and important…
Accurate volatility forecasts are vital in modern finance for risk management, portfolio allocation, and strategic decision-making. However, existing methods face key limitations. Fully multivariate models, while comprehensive, are…
Predicting future values at risk (fVaR) is an important problem in finance. They arise in the modelling of future initial margin requirements for counterparty credit risk and future market risk VaR. One is also interested in derived…
Stability selection is a versatile framework for structure estimation and variable selection in high-dimensional setting, primarily grounded in frequentist principles. In this paper, we propose an enhanced methodology that integrates…
We focus on the time-varying modeling of VaR at a given coverage $\tau$, assessing whether the quantiles of the distribution of the returns standardized by their conditional means and standard deviations exhibit predictable dynamics. Models…
Risk measure forecast and model have been developed in order to not only provide better forecast but also preserve its (empirical) property especially coherent property. Whilst the widely used risk measure of Value-at-Risk (VaR) has shown…
This paper develops a safety analysis method for stochastic systems that is sensitive to the possibility and severity of rare harmful outcomes. We define risk-sensitive safe sets as sub-level sets of the solution to a non-standard optimal…
Randomness in financial markets requires modern and robust multivariate models of risk measures. This paper proposes a new approach for modeling multivariate risk measures under Wasserstein barycenters of probability measures supported on…
Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) launched in 1997 the model CreditRisk+ which aims at calculating the loss distribution of a credit portfolio on the basis of a methodology from actuarial mathematics. Knowing the loss distribution, it is…
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) quantifies systemic financial risk by measuring the loss quantile of one asset, conditional on another asset experiencing distress. We develop a Transformer-based methodology that integrates financial news…
This study aims to widen the sphere of pratical applicability of the HAC model combined with the ARMA-APARCH volatility forecast model and the extreme values theory. A sequential process of modeling of the VaR of a portfolio based on the…