Related papers: Volatility Sensitive Bayesian Estimation of Portfo…
This paper explores option portfolio optimization when the underlying returns are skew-elliptical t-distributed. We use the variance and value at risk (VaR) to measure portfolio risk. The novelty of our work is the departure from the…
In this study, we propose a new definition of multivariate conditional value-at-risk (MCVaR) as a set of vectors for discrete probability spaces. We explore the properties of the vector-valued MCVaR (VMCVaR) and show the advantages of…
This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have…
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a central tail-risk measure in stochastic structural mechanics, yet its accurate evaluation under high-dimensional, spatially correlated material uncertainty remains computationally prohibitive for…
In safety-critical decision-making, the environment may evolve over time, and the learner adjusts its risk level accordingly. This work investigates risk-averse online optimization in dynamic environments with varying risk levels, employing…
Obtaining reliable estimates of conditional covariance matrices is an important task of heteroskedastic multivariate time series. In portfolio optimization and financial risk management, it is crucial to provide measures of uncertainty and…
Predicting future frames for a video sequence is a challenging generative modeling task. Promising approaches include probabilistic latent variable models such as the Variational Auto-Encoder. While VAEs can handle uncertainty and model…
This paper describes an approach to simultaneously identify clusters and estimate cluster-specific regression parameters from the given data. Such an approach can be useful in learning the relationship between input and output when the…
We introduce a novel covariance estimator for portfolio selection that adapts to the non-stationary or persistent heteroskedastic environments of financial time series by employing exponentially weighted averages and nonlinearly shrinking…
Variable selection in cluster analysis is important yet challenging. It can be achieved by regularization methods, which realize a trade-off between the clustering accuracy and the number of selected variables by using a lasso-type penalty.…
Portfolio allocation with gross-exposure constraint is an effective method to increase the efficiency and stability of selected portfolios among a vast pool of assets, as demonstrated in Fan et al (2008). The required high-dimensional…
This paper considers variational inequalities (VI) defined by the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of uncertain functions and provides three stochastic approximation schemes to solve them. All methods use an empirical estimate of the CVaR…
This paper is devoted to study the effects arising from imposing a value-at-risk (VaR) constraint in mean-variance portfolio selection problem for an investor who receives a stochastic cash flow which he/she must then invest in a…
In various practical situations, forecasting of aggregate values rather than individual ones is often our main focus. For instance, electricity companies are interested in forecasting the total electricity demand in a specific region to…
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a family of "coherent risk measures" which generalize the traditional mathematical expectation. Widely used in mathematical finance, it is garnering increasing interest in machine learning, e.g., as an…
We introduce two quantum algorithms to compute the Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) of financial derivatives using quantum computers: the first by applying existing ideas from quantum risk analysis to derivative…
This paper concerns sequential computation of risk measures for financial data and asks how, given a risk measurement procedure, we can tell whether the answers it produces are `correct'. We draw the distinction between `external' and…
Accurate forecasting of the Volatility-Covariance Matrix (VCV) is central to regulatory capital adequacy processes such as the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR).…
We discuss efficient Bayesian estimation of dynamic covariance matrices in multivariate time series through a factor stochastic volatility model. In particular, we propose two interweaving strategies (Yu and Meng, Journal of Computational…
It is a market practice to express market-implied volatilities in some parametric form. The most popular parametrizations are based on or inspired by an underlying stochastic model, like the Heston model (SVI method) or the SABR model (SABR…