Related papers: Prediction uncertainty validation for computationa…

This tutorial focuses on efficient methods to predictive monitoring (PM), the problem of detecting at runtime future violations of a given requirement from the current state of a system. While performing model checking at runtime would…

A central challenge in scientific machine learning (ML) is the correct representation of physical systems governed by multi-regime behaviours. In these scenarios, standard data analysis techniques often fail to capture the nature of the…

Uncertainty estimation is an essential and heavily-studied component for the reliable application of semantic segmentation methods. While various studies exist claiming methodological advances on the one hand, and successful application on…

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require…

Among the many ways of quantifying uncertainty in a regression setting, specifying the full quantile function is attractive, as quantiles are amenable to interpretation and evaluation. A model that predicts the true conditional quantiles…

Accurate uncertainty quantification in graph neural networks (GNNs) is essential, especially in high-stakes domains where GNNs are frequently employed. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a promising framework for quantifying uncertainty by…

Conjunction assessment requires knowledge of the uncertainty in the predicted orbit. Errors in the atmospheric density are a major source of error in the prediction of low Earth orbits. Therefore, accurate estimation of the density and…

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have recently demonstrated significant improvements in complex reasoning. While quantifying generation uncertainty in LRMs is crucial, traditional methods are often insufficient because they do not provide…

Uncertainty in Logic Programming has been investigated during the last decades, dealing with various extensions of the classical LP paradigm and different applications. Existing proposals rely on different approaches, such as clause…

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) inference seeks to extract human-interpretable rules from time-series data, but existing methods lack formal confidence guarantees for the inferred rules. Conformal prediction (CP) is a technique that can provide…

Uncertainty quantification is a key pillar of trustworthy machine learning. It enables safe reactions under unsafe inputs, like predicting only when the machine learning model detects sufficient evidence, discarding anomalous data, or…

Gaussian Process (GP) models are popular tools in uncertainty quantification (UQ) because they purport to furnish functional uncertainty estimates that can be used to represent model uncertainty. It is often difficult to state with…

We present a simple comparative framework for testing and developing uncertainty modeling in uncertain marching cubes implementations. The selection of a model to represent the probability distribution of uncertain values directly…

As neural networks become more popular, the need for accompanying uncertainty estimates increases. There are currently two main approaches to test the quality of these estimates. Most methods output a density. They can be compared by…

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and…

In this paper the accuracy and robustness of quality measures for the assessment of machine learning models are investigated. The prediction quality of a machine learning model is evaluated model-independent based on a cross-validation…

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a comprehensive framework to produce statistically rigorous uncertainty sets for black-box machine learning models. To further improve the efficiency of CP, conformal correction is proposed to fine-tune or…

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) have gained increasing popularity due to their compelling prediction performance in diverse natural language processing (NLP) tasks. When formulating a PLM-based prediction pipeline for NLP tasks, it is…

Validation is often defined as the process of determining the degree to which a model is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of its intended uses. Validation is crucial as industries and governments depend…

A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently…