Related papers: Probabilistic Voting Models with Varying Speeds of…
We study a stochastic model for the diffusion of competing opinions in a population composed of three types of agents: trend-followers, opposers, and indifferent individuals. The decision dynamics are driven by reinforcement mechanisms,…
When a model's performance differs across socially or culturally relevant groups--like race, gender, or the intersections of many such groups--it is often called "biased." While much of the work in algorithmic fairness over the last several…
Multi-class systems having possibly both finite and infinite classes are investigated under a natural partial exchangeability assumption. It is proved that the conditional law of such a system, given the vector of the empirical measures of…
We study the problem of reconstructing the probability measure of the Curie-Weiss model from a sample of the voting behaviour of a subset of the population. While originally used to study phase transitions in statistical mechanics, the…
Majority voting is one of the few black-box interventions that can improve a fixed stochastic predictor: repeated access can be cheaper than changing a high-capability model. Classical fixed-competence theory makes this intervention look…
Among the different disciplines in the social, behavioral and economic sciences, a fundamental class of problems is related to the prediction of the final state of the presence of individual opinions in a large population. The main aspects…
We study the statistics of turnout rates and results of the French elections since 1992. We find that the distribution of turnout rates across towns is surprisingly stable over time. The spatial correlation of the turnout rates, or of the…
Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the…
The paper considers variable selection in linear regression models where the number of covariates is possibly much larger than the number of observations. High dimensionality of the data brings in many complications, such as (possibly…
In this paper, we consider the voter model with popularity bias. The influence of each node on its neighbors depends on its degree. We find the consensus probabilities and expected consensus times for each of the states. We also find the…
In this paper we examine a variant of the voter model on a dynamically changing network where agents have the option of changing their friends rather than changing their opinions. We analyse, in the context of dense random graphs, two…
Pull voting is a random process in which vertices of a connected graph have initial opinions chosen from a set of $k$ distinct opinions, and at each step a random vertex alters its opinion to that of a randomly chosen neighbour. If the…
In this article, we study the effect of vector-valued interventions in votes under a binary voter model, where each voter expresses their vote as a $0-1$ valued random variable to choose between two candidates. We assume that the outcome is…
A finite form of de Finetti's representation theorem is established using elementary information-theoretic tools: The distribution of the first $k$ random variables in an exchangeable binary vector of length $n\geq k$ is close to a mixture…
Understanding political phenomena requires measuring the political preferences of society. We introduce a model based on mixtures of spatial voting models that infers the underlying distribution of political preferences of voters with only…
Politics around the world exhibits increasing polarization, demonstrated in part by rigid voting configurations in institutions like legislatures or courts. A crux of polarization is separation along a unidimensional ideological axis, but…
We consider models for social choice where voters rank a set of choices (or alternatives) by deliberating in small groups of size at most $k$, and these outcomes are aggregated by a social choice rule to find the winning alternative. We…
We present novel methods for predicting the outcome of large elections. Our first algorithm uses a diffusion process to model the time uncertainty inherent in polls taken with substantial calendar time left to the election. Our second model…
In a view for a simple model where natural selection at the individual level is confronted to selection effects at the group level, we consider some individual-based models of some large population subdivided into a large number of groups.…
It is well-known that the expected scaled maximum of non-negative random variables with unit mean defines a stable tail dependence function associated with some extreme-value copula. In the special case when these random variables are…