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This article investigates stochastic epidemic models with partial information and addresses the estimation of current values of not directly observable states. The latter is also called nowcasting and related to the so-called "dark figure"…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-06-03 Florent Ouabo Kamkumo , Ibrahim Mbouandi Njiasse , Ralf Wunderlich

I study partial identification of distributional parameters in triangular systems. This model consists of a nonparametric outcome equation and a selection equation. This allows for general unobserved heterogeneity and selection on…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-11 Ju Hyun Kim

In this paper an adaptive state observer and parameter identification algorithm for a linear time-varying system are developed under condition that the state matrix of the system contains unknown time-varying parameters of a known form. The…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-02-22 Olga Kozachek , Nikolay Nikolaev , Olga Slita , Alexey Bobtsov

Appealing to several multivariate information measures---some familiar, some new here---we analyze the information embedded in discrete-valued stochastic time series. We dissect the uncertainty of a single observation to demonstrate how the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-05-28 Ryan G. James , Christopher J. Ellison , James P. Crutchfield

A novel approach to the problem of partial state estimation of nonlinear systems is proposed. The main idea is to translate the state estimation problem into one of estimation of constant, unknown parameters related to the systems initial…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-04-08 Ortega Romeo , Bobtsov Alexey , Pyrkin Anton , Aranovskiy Stanislav

In this paper we are interested in the problem of adaptive state observation of linear time-varying (LTV) systems where the system and the input matrices depend on unknown time-varying parameters. It is assumed that these parameters satisfy…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-12-13 Anton Pyrkin , Alexey Bobtsov , Romeo Ortega , Alberto Isidori

Linear causal models are important tools for modeling causal dependencies and yet in practice, only a subset of the variables can be observed. In this paper, we examine the parameter identifiability of these models by investigating whether…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Xinshuai Dong , Ignavier Ng , Biwei Huang , Yuewen Sun , Songyao Jin , Roberto Legaspi , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

In this work, sample-based observability of linear discrete-time systems is studied. That is, we consider the case where the system output measurements are not available at every time instance. It is shown that some discrete-time systems…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-04-26 Isabelle Krauss , Victor G. Lopez , Matthias A. Müller

Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…

Applications · Statistics 2012-11-06 Joseph Dureau , Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos , Marc Baguelin

Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-01-11 Luca Bortolussi , Guido Sanguinetti

This paper deals with the state estimation of linear time-invariant systems using distributed observers with local sampled-data measurement and aperiodic communication. Each observer agent perceives partial information of the system to be…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-11 Shimin Wang , Ya-Jun Pan , Martin Guay

A large variety of dynamical systems, such as chemical and biomolecular systems, can be seen as networks of nonlinear entities. Prediction, control, and identification of such nonlinear networks require knowledge of the state of the system.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-06-27 Aleksandar Haber , Ferenc Molnar , Adilson E. Motter

Problem of an adaptive state observer design for nonlinear system with unknown time-varying parameters and under condition of delayed measurements is considered. State observation problem was raised by many researchers (see for example Sanx…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-17 Olga Kozachek , Alexey Bobtsov , Nikolay Nikolaev

In biological systems, information is frequently transferred with Poisson like spike processes (shot noise) modulated in time by information-carrying signals. How then to quantify information transfer for the output for such nonstationary…

Biological Physics · Physics 2009-06-19 Igor Goychuk , Peter Hanggi

Many real-world systems modeled using partial differential equations (PDEs) involve unknown parameters that must be estimated from limited, noisy system observations. While typically assumed to be constants, some of these unobserved…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-19 Andrea Arnold

Understanding a complex system entails capturing the non-trivial collective phenomena that arise from interactions between its different parts. Information theory is a flexible and robust framework to study such behaviours, with several…

Problem of adaptive state observer synthesis for linear time-varying (LTV) system with unknown time-varying parameter and delayed output measurements is considered. State observation problem has attracted the attention of many researchers…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-07-26 Alexey Bobtsov , Nikolay Nikolaev , Olga Slita , Olga Kozachek

Various processes can be modelled as quasi-reaction systems of stochastic differential equations, such as cell differentiation and disease spreading. Since the underlying data of particle interactions, such as reactions between proteins or…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-06 Matteo Framba , Veronica Vinciotti , Ernst C. Wit

In this paper, we investigate discrete-time decision-making problems in uncertain systems with partially observed states. We consider a non-stochastic model, where uncontrolled disturbances acting on the system take values in bounded sets…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-18 Aditya Dave , Nishanth Venkatesh , Andreas A. Malikopoulos

Physical systems with co-existence and interplay of processes featuring distinct spatio-temporal scales are found in various research areas ranging from studies of brain activity to astrophysics. Complexity of such systems makes their…

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