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Credit scoring models based on accepted applications may be biased and their consequences can have a statistical and economic impact. Reject inference is the process of attempting to infer the creditworthiness status of the rejected…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-09-27 Rogelio A. Mancisidor , Michael Kampffmeyer , Kjersti Aas , Robert Jenssen

Abstaining classifiers have the option to abstain from making predictions on inputs that they are unsure about. These classifiers are becoming increasingly popular in high-stakes decision-making problems, as they can withhold uncertain…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-10 Yo Joong Choe , Aditya Gangrade , Aaditya Ramdas

Predictive models are being increasingly used to support consequential decision making at the individual level in contexts such as pretrial bail and loan approval. As a result, there is increasing social and legal pressure to provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Amir-Hossein Karimi , Gilles Barthe , Borja Balle , Isabel Valera

In this growing age of data and technology, large black-box models are becoming the norm due to their ability to handle vast amounts of data and learn incredibly complex data patterns. The deficiency of these methods, however, is their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-09 Justin Lin , Julia Fukuyama

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has created the single biggest technology revolution the world has ever seen. For the finance sector, it provides great opportunities to enhance customer experience, democratize financial services, ensure…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-02 Branka Hadji Misheva , Joerg Osterrieder , Ali Hirsa , Onkar Kulkarni , Stephen Fung Lin

Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has helped elucidate the internal mechanisms of machine learning algorithms, bolstering their reliability by demonstrating the basis of their predictions. Several XAI models consider causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Daisuke Takahashi , Shohei Shimizu , Takuma Tanaka

We emphasize the importance of asking the right question when interpreting the decisions of a learning model. We discuss a natural extension of the theoretical machinery from Janzing et. al. 2020, which answers the question "Why did my…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-11 Debraj Basu

As machine learning models are increasingly used in critical decision-making settings (e.g., healthcare, finance), there has been a growing emphasis on developing methods to explain model predictions. Such \textit{explanations} are used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-29 Dylan Slack , Sophie Hilgard , Sameer Singh , Himabindu Lakkaraju

With the advent of GDPR, the domain of explainable AI and model interpretability has gained added impetus. Methods to extract and communicate visibility into decision-making models have become legal requirement. Two specific types of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-25 Shubham Rathi

In Machine Learning, the $\mathsf{SHAP}$-score is a version of the Shapley value that is used to explain the result of a learned model on a specific entity by assigning a score to every feature. While in general computing Shapley values is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-31 Marcelo Arenas , Pablo Barceló , Leopoldo Bertossi , Mikaël Monet

In this work we build a stack of machine learning models aimed at composing a state-of-the-art credit rating and default prediction system, obtaining excellent out-of-sample performances. Our approach is an excursion through the most recent…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-05 A. R. Provenzano , D. Trifirò , A. Datteo , L. Giada , N. Jean , A. Riciputi , G. Le Pera , M. Spadaccino , L. Massaron , C. Nordio

Understanding why a model makes a certain prediction can be as crucial as the prediction's accuracy in many applications. However, the highest accuracy for large modern datasets is often achieved by complex models that even experts struggle…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-11-28 Scott Lundberg , Su-In Lee

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the $\textit{uncertainty}$ of model outputs has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-01 David S. Watson , Joshua O'Hara , Niek Tax , Richard Mudd , Ido Guy

Integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) with external tools via multi-agent systems offers a promising new paradigm for decomposing and solving complex problems. However, training these systems remains notoriously difficult due to the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Yanming Li , Xuelin Zhang , WenJie Lu , Ziye Tang , Maodong Wu , Haotian Luo , Tongtong Wu , Zijie Peng , Hongze Mi , Yibo Feng , Naiqiang Tan , Chao Huang , Hong Chen , Li Shen

Whereas traditional credit scoring tends to employ only individual borrower- or loan-level predictors, it has been acknowledged for some time that connections between borrowers may result in default risk propagating over a network. In this…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-26 Sahab Zandi , Kamesh Korangi , María Óskarsdóttir , Christophe Mues , Cristián Bravo

Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine algorithms, together with Linear and Non-Linear Deep Neural Networks, are applied to lending data in order to replicate lender acceptance of loans and predict the likelihood of default of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-04 Jeremy D. Turiel , Tomaso Aste

Feature selection is one of the most relevant processes in any methodology for creating a statistical learning model. Usually, existing algorithms establish some criterion to select the most influential variables, discarding those that do…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-10 Carlos Sebastián , Carlos E. González-Guillén

When using machine learning techniques in decision-making processes, the interpretability of the models is important. In the present paper, we adopted the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP), which is based on fair profit allocation among…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-03 Yasunobu Nohara , Koutarou Matsumoto , Hidehisa Soejima , Naoki Nakashima

Recently, a method [7] was proposed to generate contrastive explanations for differentiable models such as deep neural networks, where one has complete access to the model. In this work, we propose a method, Model Agnostic Contrastive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Amit Dhurandhar , Tejaswini Pedapati , Avinash Balakrishnan , Pin-Yu Chen , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Ruchir Puri

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have demonstrated strong capacity in supporting a wide variety of applications. Shapley value has emerged as a prominent tool to analyze feature importance to help people understand the inference process of deep…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-19 Xiaolei Lu