Related papers: Algorithms for Bayesian network modeling and relia…

In recent years, researchers in decision analysis and artificial intelligence (Al) have used Bayesian belief networks to build models of expert opinion. Using standard methods drawn from the theory of computational complexity, workers in…

This paper examines Bayesian belief network inference using simulation as a method for computing the posterior probabilities of network variables. Specifically, it examines the use of a method described by Henrion, called logic sampling,…

Reliability is an important tool for evaluating the performance of modern networks. Currently, it is NP-hard and #P-hard to calculate the exact reliability of a binary-state network when the reliability of each component is assumed to be…

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide principled estimates of model and data uncertainty by encoding parameters as distributions. This makes them key enablers for reliable AI that can be deployed on safety critical edge systems. These…

We introduce a probabilistic robustness measure for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), defined as the probability that, given a test point, there exists a point within a bounded set such that the BNN prediction differs between the two. Such a…

Robust Bayesian inference is the calculation of posterior probability bounds given perturbations in a probabilistic model. This paper focuses on perturbations that can be expressed locally in Bayesian networks through convex sets of…

Large multilayer neural networks trained with backpropagation have recently achieved state-of-the-art results in a wide range of problems. However, using backprop for neural net learning still has some disadvantages, e.g., having to tune a…

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Belief updating in Bayes nets, a well known computationally hard problem, has recently been approximated by several deterministic algorithms, and by various randomized approximation algorithms. Deterministic algorithms usually provide…

Bayesian inference is a powerful paradigm for quantum state tomography, treating uncertainty in meaningful and informative ways. Yet the numerical challenges associated with sampling from complex probability distributions hampers Bayesian…

Neural networks (NN) have achieved state-of-the-art performance in various applications. Unfortunately in applications where training data is insufficient, they are often prone to overfitting. One effective way to alleviate this problem is…

Bayesian estimation is increasingly popular for performing model based inference to support policymaking. These data are often collected from surveys under informative sampling designs where subject inclusion probabilities are designed to…

The logistic specification has been used extensively in non-Bayesian statistics to model the dependence of discrete outcomes on the values of specified covariates. Because the likelihood function is globally weakly concave estimation by…

The systems that statisticians are asked to assess, such as nuclear weapons, infrastructure networks, supercomputer codes and munitions, have become increasingly complex. It is often costly to conduct full system tests. As such, we present…

Suppose that multiple experts (or learning algorithms) provide us with alternative Bayesian network (BN) structures over a domain, and that we are interested in combining them into a single consensus BN structure. Specifically, we are…

Bayesian neural network models (BNN) have re-surged in recent years due to the advancement of scalable computations and its utility in solving complex prediction problems in a wide variety of applications. Despite the popularity and…

We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…

An imprecise Bayesian nonparametric approach to system reliability with multiple types of components is developed. This allows modelling partial or imperfect prior knowledge on component failure distributions in a flexible way through…

Bayesian inference is an effective approach for solving statistical learning problems especially with uncertainty and incompleteness. However, inference efficiencies are physically limited by the bottlenecks of conventional computing…

We show an alternative way of representing a Bayesian belief network by sensitivities and probability distributions. This representation is equivalent to the traditional representation by conditional probabilities, but makes dependencies…