Related papers: Current Implicit Policies May Not Eradicate COVID-…
Because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 to almost every part of the globe, huge volumes of data and case studies have been made available, providing researchers with a unique opportunity to find trends and make discoveries like never…
The results of an alternative methodology for making predictions about the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece are presented. Instead of focusing on the various population profiles (subjected to instabilities introduced by the fitting process),…
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the critical role of human behavior in influencing infectious disease transmission and the need for models capturing this complex dynamic. We present an agent-based model integrating an epidemiological…
Real-world multi-agent systems are often dynamic and continuous, where the agents co-evolve and undergo changes in their trajectories and interactions over time. For example, the COVID-19 transmission in the U.S. can be viewed as a…
Breaking a complex bio-social phenomenon (epidemic) into its components, considering the processes that determine its dynamics, formalizing the accepted hypotheses in mathematical equations, selecting appropriate experimental and…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…
As infected and vaccinated population increases, some countries decided not to impose non-pharmaceutical intervention measures anymore and to coexist with COVID-19. However, we do not have a comprehensive understanding of its consequence ,…
A novel coronavirus disease has emerged (later named COVID-19) and caused the world to enter a new reality, with many direct and indirect factors influencing it. Some are human-controllable (e.g. interventional policies, mobility and the…
We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…
Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…
Given the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, it is of interest to understand how the infections spread as the combined result of measures taken by central planners (governments) and individual behavior. In this work, the spread of Covid-19 is…
Large-scale testing is considered key to assess the state of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the link between the reported case numbers and the true state of the pandemic remains elusive. We develop mathematical models based on…
During the Covid-19 pandemic, most governments across the world imposed policies like lock-down of public spaces and restrictions on people's movements to minimize the spread of the virus through physical contact. However, such policies…
The rapid spread of the Coronavirus SARS-2 is a major challenge that led almost all governments worldwide to take drastic measures to respond to the tragedy. Chief among those measures is the massive lockdown of entire countries and cities,…
This contribution analyzes the COVID-19 outbreak by comparably simple mathematical and numerical methods. The final goal is to predict the peak of the epidemic outbreak per country with a reliable technique. This is done by an algorithm…
The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for mathematical models that can project epidemic trends and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. To forecast the transmission of COVID-19, a major challenge is the accurate…
The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…
Many countries have passed their first COVID-19 epidemic peak. Traditional epidemiological models describe this as a result of non-pharmaceutical interventions that pushed the growth rate below the recovery rate. In this new phase of the…
In this paper, we propose a new real-time differential virus transmission model, which can give more accurate and robust short-term predictions of COVID-19 transmitted infectious disease with benefits of near-term trend projection.…
Epidemics and pandemics have ravaged human life since time. To combat these, novel ideas have always been created and deployed by humanity, with varying degrees of success. At this very moment, the COVID-19 pandemic is the singular global…