Related papers: Current Implicit Policies May Not Eradicate COVID-…
Recent re-opening policies in the US, following a period of social distancing measures, introduced a significant increase in daily COVID-19 infections, calling for a roll-back or substantial revisiting of these policies in many states. The…
Metapopulation epidemic models help capture the spatial dimension of infectious disease spread by dividing heterogeneous populations into separate but interconnected communities, represented by nodes in a network. In the event of an…
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a vast amount of growth for statistical models and methods which characterize features of disease outbreaks. One class of models that came to light in this regard has been the use of self-exciting point…
When considering airborne epidemic spreading in social systems, a natural connection arises between mobility and epidemic contacts. As individuals travel, possibilities to encounter new people either at the final destination or during the…
Background: The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic dilated rapidly throughout India. To end the global COVID-19 pandemic major behavioral, social distancing, contact tracing, and state interventions has been undertaken to reduce the outbreak and…
Vaccination campaigns have both direct and indirect effects that act to control an infectious disease as it spreads through a population. Indirect effects arise when vaccinated individuals block disease transmission in any infection chains…
Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct model assumptions, but there is no theoretical explanation…
We analyze an approach to managing the COVID-19 pandemic without shutting down the economy while staying within the capacity of the healthcare system. We base our analysis on a detailed heterogeneous epidemiological model, which takes into…
Background: Human behavior shapes infectious disease dynamics, yet its integration into transmission models remains fragmented. Recent epidemics, particularly COVID-19, highlight the need for models capturing adaptation to perceived risk,…
Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 all across the globe, we have performed simulations of a system dynamic epidemic spread model in different possible situations. The simulation, not only captures the model dynamic of the spread of…
As a highly infectious respiratory disease, COVID-19 has become a pandemic that threatens global health. Without an effective treatment, non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as travel restrictions, have been widely promoted to mitigate…
In the absence of any proper clinical solution, human civilization is only left with sophisticated intervention measures to contain the spread of COVID-19. However, the existing models to estimate the intervention does not take into account…
The rapid transmission of the highly contagious novel coronavirus has been represented through several data-guided approaches across targeted geographies, in an attempt to understand when the pandemic will be under control and imposed…
Due to modern transportation networks (airplanes, cruise ships, etc.) an epidemic in a given country or city may be triggered by the arrival of external infected agents. Posterior government quarantine policies are usually taken in order to…
I employ a simple mathematical model of an epidemic process to evaluate how four basic quantities: the reproduction number (R), the numbers of sensitive (S) and infectious individuals(I), and total community size (N) affect strategies to…
As COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A main challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key…
This paper aims to study the economic impact of COVID-19. To do that, in the first step, I showed that the adjusted SEQIER model, which is a generalization form of SEIR model, is a good fit to the real COVID-induced daily death data in a…
COVID-19 pandemic has an unprecedented impact all over the world since early 2020. During this public health crisis, reliable forecasting of the disease becomes critical for resource allocation and administrative planning. The results from…
The outbreak of COVID-19, beginning in 2019 and continuing through the time of writing, has led to renewed interest in the mathematical modeling of infectious disease. Recent works have focused on partial differential equation (PDE) models,…
The recent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has dramatically increased the public awareness and appreciation of the utility of dynamic models. At the same time, the dissemination of contradictory model predictions has highlighted…