Related papers: Current Implicit Policies May Not Eradicate COVID-…
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted lives and economies across the globe, leading to many deaths. While vaccination is an important intervention, its roll-out is slow and unequal across the globe. Therefore, extensive testing still remains…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…
The adoption of containment measures to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak is a key aspect in tackling the rapid spread of an epidemic. Classical compartmental models must be modified and studied to correctly describe the effects of…
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused tremendous amount of deaths and a devastating impact on the economic development all over the world. Thus, it is paramount to control its further transmission, for which purpose it…
The emergence of an epidemic evokes the need to monitor its spread and assess and validate any mitigation measures enacted by governments and administrative bodies in real time. We present here a method to observe and quantify this spread…
This paper presents a study on a compartmental epidemic model for COVID-19, examining the stability of its equilibrium points upon the introduction of vaccination as a strategy to mitigate the spread of the disease. Initially, the SIQR…
COVID-19 is a new pandemic disease that is affecting almost every country with a negative impact on social life and economic activities. The number of infected and deceased patients continues to increase globally. Mathematical models can…
Contacts between people are the absolute drivers of contagious respiratory infections. For this reason, limiting and tracking contacts is a key strategy for the control of the COVID-19 epidemic. Digital contact tracing has been proposed as…
Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…
The ability to accurately predict human behavior is central to the safety and efficiency of robot autonomy in interactive settings. Unfortunately, robots often lack access to key information on which these predictions may hinge, such as…
In this work, we contribute the first visual open-source empirical study on human behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic, in order to investigate how compliant a general population is to mask-wearing-related public-health policy.…
This paper deals with the problem of estimating variables in nonlinear models for the spread of disease and its application to the COVID-19 epidemic. First unconstrained methods are revisited and they are shown to correspond to the…
Policymakers commonly employ non-pharmaceutical interventions to manage the scale and severity of pandemics. Of non-pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing policies -- designed to reduce person-to-person pathogenic spread -- have…
Near-real time estimations of the effective reproduction number are among the most important tools to track the progression of a pandemic and to inform policy makers and the general public. However, these estimations rely on reported case…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
The Omicron wave was the largest wave of COVID-19 pandemic to date, more than doubling any other in terms of cases and hospitalizations in the United States. In this paper, we present a large-scale agent-based model of policy interventions…
We demonstrate an approach to replicate and forecast the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic using the toolkit of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). Our goal is to study the impact of various modeling assumptions and…
Short-term forecasts of infectious disease spread are a critical component in risk evaluation and public health decision making. While different models for short-term forecasting have been developed, open questions about their relative…
The emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States has forced federal and local governments to implement containment measures. Moreover, the severity of the situation has sparked engagement by both the research and…