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Deep neural networks lack interpretability and tend to be overconfident, which poses a serious problem in safety-critical applications like autonomous driving, medical imaging, or machine vision tasks with high demands on reliability.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-27 Steven Landgraf , Kira Wursthorn , Markus Hillemann , Markus Ulrich

Ensembles of models often yield improvements in system performance. These ensemble approaches have also been empirically shown to yield robust measures of uncertainty, and are capable of distinguishing between different \emph{forms} of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-27 Andrey Malinin , Bruno Mlodozeniec , Mark Gales

Efficiently and reliably estimating uncertainty is an important objective in deep learning. It is especially pertinent to autoregressive sequence tasks, where training and inference costs are typically very high. However, existing research…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-18 Yassir Fathullah , Guoxuan Xia , Mark Gales

We formally study how ensemble of deep learning models can improve test accuracy, and how the superior performance of ensemble can be distilled into a single model using knowledge distillation. We consider the challenging case where the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-16 Zeyuan Allen-Zhu , Yuanzhi Li

Deep ensembles excel in large-scale image classification tasks both in terms of prediction accuracy and calibration. Despite being simple to train, the computation and memory cost of deep ensembles limits their practicability. While some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-28 Giung Nam , Jongmin Yoon , Yoonho Lee , Juho Lee

We propose an efficient way to output better calibrated uncertainty scores from neural networks. The Distilled Dropout Network (DDN) makes standard (non-Bayesian) neural networks more introspective by adding a new training loss which…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-09-28 Corina Gurau , Alex Bewley , Ingmar Posner

Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of reinforcement learning and deep learning, with numerous applications ranging from efficient exploration and stable offline reinforcement learning to outlier detection in medical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-27 Moritz A. Zanger , Pascal R. Van der Vaart , Wendelin Böhmer , Matthijs T. J. Spaan

Ensembles of neural networks have been shown to give better performance than single networks, both in terms of predictions and uncertainty estimation. Additionally, ensembles allow the uncertainty to be decomposed into aleatoric (data) and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-11 Jakob Lindqvist , Amanda Olmin , Fredrik Lindsten , Lennart Svensson

Deep ensembles (DE) have emerged as a powerful approach for quantifying predictive uncertainty and distinguishing its aleatoric and epistemic components, thereby enhancing model robustness and reliability. However, their high computational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Kaizheng Wang , Fabio Cuzzolin , David Moens , Hans Hallez

Estimating and disentangling epistemic uncertainty, uncertainty that is reducible with more training data, and aleatoric uncertainty, uncertainty that is inherent to the task at hand, is critically important when applying machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Matthew A. Chan , Maria J. Molina , Christopher A. Metzler

Calibrated estimates of uncertainty are critical for many real-world computer vision applications of deep learning. While there are several widely-used uncertainty estimation methods, dropout inference stands out for its simplicity and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-11-09 Yichen Shen , Zhilu Zhang , Mert R. Sabuncu , Lin Sun

Uncertainty estimation is critical for reliable medical image segmentation, particularly in retinal vessel analysis, where accurate predictions are essential for diagnostic applications. Deep Ensembles, where multiple networks are trained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Jeremiah Fadugba , Petru Manescu , Bolanle Oladejo , Delmiro Fernandez-Reyes , Philipp Berens

Most existing federated learning methods are unable to estimate model/predictive uncertainty since the client models are trained using the standard loss function minimization approach which ignores such uncertainties. In many situations,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-03 Shrey Bhatt , Aishwarya Gupta , Piyush Rai

Discrete diffusion models (DDMs) have shown powerful generation ability for discrete data modalities like text and molecules. However, their practical application is hindered by inefficient sampling, requiring a large number of sampling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Feiyang Fu , Tongxian Guo , Zhaoqiang Liu

In this work we aim to obtain computationally-efficient uncertainty estimates with deep networks. For this, we propose a modified knowledge distillation procedure that achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty estimates both for in and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-14 Erik Englesson , Hossein Azizpour

Recently, deep learning has emerged as a promising tool for statistical downscaling, the set of methods for generating high-resolution climate fields from coarse low-resolution variables. Nevertheless, their ability to generalize to climate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Jose González-Abad , Jorge Baño-Medina

Ensembling a neural network is a widely recognized approach to enhance model performance, estimate uncertainty, and improve robustness in deep supervised learning. However, deep ensembles often come with high computational costs and memory…

Modern neural networks do not always produce well-calibrated predictions, even when trained with a proper scoring function such as cross-entropy. In classification settings, simple methods such as isotonic regression or temperature scaling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-26 Steven Reich , David Mueller , Nicholas Andrews

Image classification with neural networks (NNs) is widely used in industrial processes, situations where the model likely encounters unknown objects during deployment, i.e., out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Worryingly, NNs tend to make…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Arthur Thuy , Dries F. Benoit

Recent language models have shown remarkable performance on natural language understanding (NLU) tasks. However, they are often sub-optimal when faced with ambiguous samples that can be interpreted in multiple ways, over-confidently…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-17 Hancheol Park , Soyeong Jeong , Sukmin Cho , Jong C. Park
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