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In this note we propose a new approach towards solving numerically optimal stopping problems via reinforced regression based Monte Carlo algorithms. The main idea of the method is to reinforce standard linear regression algorithms in each…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-07-02 Denis Belomestny , John Schoenmakers , Vladimir Spokoiny , Bakhyt Zharkynbay

We introduce new variants of classical regression-based algorithms for optimal stopping problems based on computation of regression coefficients by Monte Carlo approximation of the corresponding $L^2$ inner products instead of the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-04-29 Christian Bayer , Martin Redmann , John Schoenmakers

This article proposes an artificial data generating algorithm that is simple and easy to customize. The fundamental concept is to perform random permutation of Monte Carlo generated random numbers which conform to the unconditional…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-17 A. Christian Silva , Fernando F. Ferreira

Least squares Monte Carlo methods are a popular numerical approximation method for solving stochastic control problems. Based on dynamic programming, their key feature is the approximation of the conditional expectation of future rewards by…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-28 Christian Bayer , Denis Belomestny , Paul Hager , Paolo Pigato , John Schoenmakers , Vladimir Spokoiny

We study the numerical solution of nonlinear partially observed optimal stopping problems. The system state is taken to be a multi-dimensional diffusion and drives the drift of the observation process, which is another multi-dimensional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2010-01-20 Mike Ludkovski

We develop a Monte-Carlo based numerical method for solving discrete-time stochastic optimal control problems with inventory. These are optimal control problems in which the control affects only a deterministically evolving inventory…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-02-05 Alessandro Balata , Jan Palczewski

This paper investigates methods for estimating the optimal stochastic control policy for a Markov Decision Process with unknown transition dynamics and an unknown reward function. This form of model-free reinforcement learning comprises…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-06 Brandon Trabucco , Albert Qu , Simon Li , Ganeshkumar Ashokavardhanan

Monte Carlo estimation in plays a crucial role in stochastic reaction networks. However, reducing the statistical uncertainty of the corresponding estimators requires sampling a large number of trajectories. We propose control variates…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-19 Michael Backenköhler , Luca Bortolussi , Verena Wolf

Under the assumption of no-arbitrage, the pricing of American and Bermudan options can be casted into optimal stopping problems. We propose a new adaptive simulation based algorithm for the numerical solution of optimal stopping problems in…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Daniel Egloff , Michael Kohler , Nebojsa Todorovic

The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 James Cuin , Davide Carbone , Yanbo Tang , O. Deniz Akyildiz

Monte Carlo simulation is often used for the reliability assessment of power systems, but it converges slowly when the system is complex. Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) can be applied to speed up computation without compromises on model…

Computation · Statistics 2022-07-12 Ensieh Sharifnia , Simon Tindemans

We extend the Longstaff-Schwartz algorithm for approximately solving optimal stopping problems on high-dimensional state spaces. We reformulate the optimal stopping problem for Markov processes in discrete time as a generalized statistical…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Daniel Egloff

We investigate Monte Carlo based algorithms for solving stochastic control problems with probabilistic constraints. Our motivation comes from microgrid management, where the controller tries to optimally dispatch a diesel generator while…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-02-06 Alessandro Balata , Michael Ludkovski , Aditya Maheshwari , Jan Palczewski

Policy evaluation via Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is at the core of many MC Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms (e.g., policy gradient methods). In this context, the designer of the learning system specifies an interaction budget that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Riccardo Poiani , Nicole Nobili , Alberto Maria Metelli , Marcello Restelli

We develop two Regression Monte Carlo algorithms (value and performance iteration) to solve general problems of optimal stochastic control of discrete-time Markov processes. We formulate our method within an innovative framework that allow…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-12-29 Alessandro Balata , Jan Palczewski

We are concerned with the numerical resolution of backward stochastic differential equations. We propose a new numerical scheme based on iterative regressions on function bases, which coefficients are evaluated using Monte Carlo…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Emmanuel Gobet , Jean-Philippe Lemor , Xavier Warin

We introduce mlOSP, a computational template for Machine Learning for Optimal Stopping Problems. The template is implemented in the R statistical environment and publicly available via a GitHub repository. mlOSP presents a unified numerical…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-10-04 Mike Ludkovski

An algorithm is proposed that enables the imposition of shape constraints on regression curves, without requiring the constraints to be written as closed-form expressions, nor assuming the functional form of the loss function. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-08 Kenyon Ng , Berwin A. Turlach , Kevin Murray

In the day-to-day operation of a power system, the system operator repeatedly solves short-term generation planning problems. When formulating these problems the operators have to weigh the risk of costly failures against increased…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-12-31 Magnus Perninge

Sequential analysis encompasses simulation theories and methods where the sample size is determined dynamically based on accumulating data. Since the conceptual inception, numerous sequential stopping rules have been introduced, and many…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Jiezhong Wu , Reiichiro Kawai
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