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Bayesian parameter inference for complex stochastic simulators is challenging due to intractable likelihood functions. Existing simulation-based inference methods often require large number of simulations and become costly to use in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Vasilis Gkolemis , Christos Diou , Michael U. Gutmann

We develop a Monte Carlo-free approach to inference post output from randomized algorithms with a convex loss and a convex penalty. The pivotal statistic based on a truncated law, called the selective pivot, usually lacks closed form…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-19 Snigdha Panigrahi , Jelena Markovic , Jonathan Taylor

Several methods have been proposed in the literature to solve reliability-based optimization problems, where failure probabilities are design constraints. However, few methods address the problem of life-cycle cost or risk optimization,…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-09 H. M. Kroetz , M. Moustapha , A. T. Beck , B. Sudret

Coarse timesteppers provide a bridge between microscopic / stochastic system descriptions and macroscopic tasks such as coarse stability/bifurcation computations. Exploiting this computational enabling technology, we present a framework for…

Cellular Automata and Lattice Gases · Physics 2007-05-23 C. I. Siettos , A. Armaou , A. G. Makeev , I. G. Kevrekidis

Simulation models are widely used in practice to facilitate decision-making in a complex, dynamic and stochastic environment. But they are computationally expensive to execute and optimize, due to lack of analytical tractability. Simulation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-14 L. Jeff Hong , Xiaowei Zhang

Robotic systems must be able to quickly and robustly make decisions when operating in uncertain and dynamic environments. While Reinforcement Learning (RL) can be used to compute optimal policies with little prior knowledge about the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2016-09-13 Yunpeng Pan , Xinyan Yan , Evangelos Theodorou , Byron Boots

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-23 Jeremy Heng , Adrian N. Bishop , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

In this paper we present a new approach to control variates for improving computational efficiency of Ensemble Monte Carlo. We present the approach using simulation of paths of a time-dependent nonlinear stochastic equation. The core idea…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2008-09-25 T. Borogovac , F. J. Alexander , P. Vakili

History-dependent sampling can reduce long-run Monte Carlo variance by discouraging redundant revisits, but existing schemes typically encode history through empirical measure on finite state spaces, which is infeasible in high-dimensional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Jie Hu , Lingyun Chen , Geeho Kim , Jinyoung Choi , Bohyung Han , Do Young Eun

We propose and study an asymptotically optimal Monte Carlo estimator for steady-state expectations of a d-dimensional reflected Brownian motion. Our estimator is asymptotically optimal in the sense that it requires $\tilde{O}(d)$ (up to…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-29 Jose Blanchet , Xinyun Chen , Peter Glynn , Nian Si

Monte Carlo Exploring Starts (MCES), which aims to learn the optimal policy using only sample returns, is a simple and natural algorithm in reinforcement learning which has been shown to converge under various conditions. However, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-07 Suei-Wen Chen , Keith Ross , Pierre Youssef

In this paper, we aim to compute numerical approximation integral by using an adaptive Monte Carlo algorithm. We propose a stratified sampling algorithm based on an iterative method which splits the strata following some quantities called…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-07-22 Toni Sayah

The effectiveness of stochastic algorithms based on Monte Carlo dynamics in solving hard optimization problems is mostly unknown. Beyond the basic statement that at a dynamical phase transition the ergodicity breaks and a Monte Carlo…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2019-07-10 Maria Chiara Angelini , Federico Ricci-Tersenghi

For obtaining optimal first-order convergence guarantee for stochastic optimization, it is necessary to use a recurrent data sampling algorithm that samples every data point with sufficient frequency. Most commonly used data sampling…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-23 William G. Powell , Hanbaek Lyu

Optimal actuator and control design is studied as a multi-level optimisation problem, where the actuator design is evaluated based on the performance of the associated optimal closed loop. The evaluation of the optimal closed loop for a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-02-13 Dante Kalise , Estefanía Loayza-Romero , Kirsten A. Morris , Zhengang Zhong

The optimal stopping problem is a category of decision problems with a specific constrained configuration. It is relevant to various real-world applications such as finance and management. To solve the optimal stopping problem,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-08-02 Leonardo Kanashiro Felizardo , Elia Matsumoto , Emilio Del-Moral-Hernandez

We consider an optimal stochastic impulse control problem over an infinite time horizon motivated by a model of irreversible investment choices with fixed adjustment costs. By employing techniques of viscosity solutions and relying on…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-02-05 Salvatore Federico , Mauro Rosestolato , Elisa Tacconi

We propose a general framework for machine learning based optimization under uncertainty. Our approach replaces the complex forward model by a surrogate, which is learned simultaneously in a one-shot sense when solving the optimal control…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-12-25 Philipp A. Guth , Claudia Schillings , Simon Weissmann

In this paper, we present an online reinforcement learning algorithm, called Renewal Monte Carlo (RMC), for infinite horizon Markov decision processes with a designated start state. RMC is a Monte Carlo algorithm and retains the advantages…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-04-05 Jayakumar Subramanian , Aditya Mahajan

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) is a flexible and effective variance reduction technique for accelerating reliability assessments of complex power system. Recently, data-driven surrogate models have been proposed as lower-level models in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Ruiqi Zhang , Simon H. Tindemans