Related papers: Translating the internal climate variability from …
Climate models are thought to solve boundary value problems unlike numerical weather prediction, which is an initial value problem. However, climate internal variability (CIV) is thought to be relatively important at near-term (0-30 year)…
Skilful prediction of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall (ISMR) at least one season in advance has great socio-economic value. It represents a lifeline for about a sixth of the world's population. The ISMR prediction remained…
Climate projection uncertainty can be partitioned into model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty and internal variability. Here, we investigate the different sources of uncertainty in the projected frequencies of daily maximum temperature and…
Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations from the CMIP5 decadal…
Natural climate variability, captured through multiple initial condition ensembles, may be comparable to the variability caused by knowledge gaps in future emissions trajectories and in the physical science basis, especially at…
Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are also robust results of coupled general circulation models. In spite of this success model-to-model variability…
The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and associated monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) influence the billions of people living in the Indian subcontinent. This study explores the role of autoconversion parameterization in microphysical…
-Complex manufacturing systems are subject to high levels of variability that decrease productivity, increase cycle times and severely impact the systems tractability. As accurate modelling of the sources of variability is a cornerstone to…
Assessments of impacts of climate change and future projections over the Indian region, have so far relied on a single regional climate model (RCM) - eg., the PRECIS RCM of the Hadley Centre, UK. While these assessments have provided inputs…
The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has a decisive influence on India's agricultural output and economy. Extreme deviations from the normal seasonal amount of rainfall can cause severe droughts or floods, affecting Indian food…
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the climate and economy aim to analyze the impact and efficacy of policies that aim to control climate change, such as carbon taxes and subsidies. A major characteristic of IAMs is that their…
Accurate uncertainty information associated with essential climate variables (ECVs) is crucial for reliable climate modeling and understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of the Earth system. In recent years, geoscience and climate…
Large socio-economic impact of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) extremes motivated numerous attempts at its long range prediction over the past century. However, a rather estimated low potential predictability limit (PPL) of seasonal…
An unresolved problem of present generation coupled climate models is the realistic distribution of rainfall over Indian monsoon region, which is also related to the persistent dry bias over Indian land mass. Therefore, quantitative…
Accurate projections of wind energy potential under climate change are critical for effective long-term energy planning. While previous studies have highlighted the value of multi-model ensembles, they often fall short in capturing the full…
We analyse Indian summer monsoon (ISM) seasonal reforecasts by CFSv2 model, initiated from January (4-month lead time, L4) through May (0-month lead time, L0) initial conditions (ICs), to examine the cause for highest all-India ISM rainfall…
In hydrology, modeling streamflow remains a challenging task due to the limited availability of basin characteristics information such as soil geology and geomorphology. These characteristics may be noisy due to measurement errors or may be…
Accurately quantifying uncertainty in predictions and projections arising from irreducible internal climate variability is critical for informed decision making. Such uncertainty is typically assessed using ensembles produced with physics…
Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensembles are subject to substantial uncertainty due to model…
Evaporation is gaining increasing attention as a calibration and evaluation variable in hydrologic studies that seek to improve the physical realism of hydrologic models and go beyond the long-established streamflow-only calibration.…