Related papers: A stochastic household model for vector-borne dise…
We analyse a generalized stochastic household epidemic model defined by a bivariate random variable $(X_G, X_L)$, representing the number of global and local infectious contacts that an infectious individual makes during their infectious…
In Costa Rica, the first known cases of Zika were reported in 2016. We looked at the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak and explored the transmission dynamics using weekly reported data. A nonlinear differential equation single-outbreak model with…
Recent infectious disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Zika epidemic in Brazil, have demonstrated both the importance and difficulty of accurately forecasting novel infectious diseases. When new diseases first emerge, we…
Most population models assume that individuals within a given population are identical, that is, the fundamental role of variation is ignored. Inhomogeneous models of populations and communities allow for birth and death rates to vary among…
Mutations sometimes increase contagiousness for evolving pathogens. During an epidemic, scientists use viral genome data to infer a shared evolutionary history and connect this history to geographic spread. We propose a model that directly…
When an infectious disease propagates throughout society, the incidence function may rise at first due to an increase in pathogenicity and then decrease due to inhibitory effects until it reaches saturation. Effective vaccination and…
A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight…
Physiological stress fundamentally alters disease susceptibility in aquatic environments. In this paper, we develop a stress-structured epidemiological model where host vulnerability is dynamically driven by water quality. Analytically, we…
In this paper, we introduce a control strategy for applying the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) to eliminate the population of Aedes mosquitoes which are the vectors of various deadly diseases like dengue, zika, chikungunya... in a wide…
Infection by distinct Dengue virus serotypes and host immunity are intricately linked. In particular, certain levels of cross-reactive antibodies in the host may actually enhance infection severity leading to Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF).…
A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
The rapid transmission of the highly contagious novel coronavirus has been represented through several data-guided approaches across targeted geographies, in an attempt to understand when the pandemic will be under control and imposed…
In this paper we study the diffusion of an SIS-type epidemics on a network under the presence of a random environment, that enters in the definition of the infection rates of the nodes. Accordingly, we model the infection rates in the form…
To describe the propagation of West Nile virus and/or Zika virus, in this paper, we propose and study a time-periodic reaction-diffusion model with general boundary conditions in heterogeneous environments and with four unknowns:…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
In this work we performed a numerical study of an epidemic model that mimics the endemic state of whooping cough in the pre-vaccine era. We considered a stochastic SIR model on dynamical networks that involve local and global contacts among…
This paper is concerned with SIR (susceptible $\to$ infected $\to$ removed) household epidemic models in which the infection response may be either mild or severe, with the type of response also affecting the infectiousness of an…
The influence of climate on mosquito-borne diseases like dengue and chikungunya is well-established, but comprehensively tracking long-term spatial and temporal trends across large areas has been hindered by fragmented data and limited…
Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…