Related papers: Variational inference for large Bayesian vector au…
Motivated by applications in tissue-wide association studies (TWAS), we develop a flexible and theoretically grounded empirical Bayes approach for integrating %vector-valued outcomes data obtained from different sources. We propose a linear…
As a special infinite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model can capture much richer temporal patterns than the widely used finite-order VAR model. However, its practicality has long…
We study the problem of automatically discovering Granger causal relations from observational multivariate time-series data.Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have been time-tested for this problem, including Bayesian variants and more…
Bayesian hierarchical models are increasing popular in economics. When using hierarchical models, it is useful not only to calculate posterior expectations, but also to measure the robustness of these expectations to reasonable alternative…
Multi-group covariance estimation for matrix-variate data with small within group sample sizes is a key part of many data analysis tasks in modern applications. To obtain accurate group-specific covariance estimates, shrinkage estimation…
I introduce a high-dimensional Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) framework designed to estimate the effects of conventional monetary policy shocks. The model captures structural shocks as latent factors, enabling computationally…
Variational inference has recently emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in large-scale Bayesian inference. The core idea is to trade statistical accuracy for computational efficiency. In this…
We introduce a novel covariance estimator for portfolio selection that adapts to the non-stationary or persistent heteroskedastic environments of financial time series by employing exponentially weighted averages and nonlinearly shrinking…
High dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models require a large number of parameters to be estimated and may suffer of inferential problems. We propose a new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) Lasso prior (BNP-Lasso) for high-dimensional VAR…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models assume linearity between the endogenous variables and their lags. This assumption might be overly restrictive and could have a deleterious impact on forecasting accuracy. As a solution, we propose…
Vector autoregressions (VARs) are popular model for analyzing multivariate economic time series. However, VARs can be over-parameterized if the numbers of variables and lags are moderately large. Tensor VAR, a recent solution to…
Bayesian methods are particularly effective for addressing inverse problems due to their ability to manage uncertainties inherent in the inference process. However, employing these methods with costly forward models poses significant…
Modern approaches to perform Bayesian variable selection rely mostly on the use of shrinkage priors. That said, an ideal shrinkage prior should be adaptive to different signal levels, ensuring that small effects are ruled out, while keeping…
Inference models are a key component in scaling variational inference to deep latent variable models, most notably as encoder networks in variational auto-encoders (VAEs). By replacing conventional optimization-based inference with a…
With uncertain changes of the economic environment, macroeconomic downturns during recessions and crises can hardly be explained by a Gaussian structural shock. There is evidence that the distribution of macroeconomic variables is skewed…
We propose a scalable variational Bayes method for statistical inference for a single or low-dimensional subset of the coordinates of a high-dimensional parameter in sparse linear regression. Our approach relies on assigning a mean-field…
High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for the analysis of multivariate time series. This paper focuses on high-dimensional time series and on the different regularized estimation procedures proposed for…
Discrete choice models are commonly used by applied statisticians in numerous fields, such as marketing, economics, finance, and operations research. When agents in discrete choice models are assumed to have differing preferences, exact…
Variable selection techniques have become increasingly popular amongst statisticians due to an increased number of regression and classification applications involving high-dimensional data where we expect some predictors to be unimportant.…
We consider the estimation of the transition matrix in the high-dimensional time-varying vector autoregression (TV-VAR) models. Our model builds on a general class of locally stationary VAR processes that evolve smoothly in time. We propose…