Related papers: Variational inference for large Bayesian vector au…
VARs are often estimated with Bayesian techniques to cope with model dimensionality. The posterior means define a class of shrinkage estimators, indexed by hyperparameters that determine the relative weight on maximum likelihood estimates…
The reduced-rank vector autoregressive (VAR) model can be interpreted as a supervised factor model, where two factor modelings are simultaneously applied to response and predictor spaces. This article introduces a new model, called vector…
We consider a Bayesian approach to variable selection in the presence of high dimensional covariates based on a hierarchical model that places prior distributions on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. We adopt the…
Variable selection over a potentially large set of covariates in a linear model is quite popular. In the Bayesian context, common prior choices can lead to a posterior expectation of the regression coefficients that is a sparse (or nearly…
Variational Bayes (VB) is a popular scalable alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference. We study a mean-field spike and slab VB approximation of widely used Bayesian model selection priors in sparse high-dimensional…
A framework is presented for fitting inverse problem models via variational Bayes approximations. This methodology guarantees flexibility to statistical model specification for a broad range of applications, good accuracy and reduced model…
We propose a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model for mixed-frequency data. Our model is based on the mean-adjusted parametrization of the VAR and allows for an explicit prior on the 'steady states' (unconditional means) of the…
We study the problem of modelling high-dimensional, heavy-tailed time series data via a factor-adjusted vector autoregressive (VAR) model, which simultaneously accounts for pervasive co-movements of the variables by a handful of factors, as…
High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models have numerous applications in fields such as econometrics, biology, climatology, among others. While prior research has mainly focused on linear VAR models, these approaches can be…
In the context of a vector autoregression (VAR) model, or any multivariate regression model, the number of relevant predictors may be small relative to the information set available from which to build a prediction equation. It is well…
Vector autoregression (VAR) models are widely used for forecasting and macroeconomic analysis, yet they remain limited by their reliance on a linear parameterization. Recent research has introduced nonparametric alternatives, such as…
Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…
We propose a new approach to Bayesian prediction that caters for models with a large number of parameters and is robust to model misspecification. Given a class of high-dimensional (but parametric) predictive models, this new approach…
Logistic regression involving high-dimensional covariates is a practically important problem. Often the goal is variable selection, i.e., determining which few of the many covariates are associated with the binary response. Unfortunately,…
In this paper, we explore adaptive inference based on variational Bayes. Although several studies have been conducted to analyze the contraction properties of variational posteriors, there is still a lack of a general and computationally…
In practical regression applications, multiple covariates are often measured, but not all may be associated with the response variable. Identifying and including only the relevant covariates in the model is crucial for improving prediction…
Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…
Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) are the workhorse in macroeconomic forecasting. Research in the last decade has established the importance of allowing time-varying volatility to capture both secular and cyclical variations in…
Factors models are routinely used to analyze high-dimensional data in both single-study and multi-study settings. Bayesian inference for such models relies on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which scale poorly as the number of…
Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…