English
Related papers

Related papers: Extremal Characteristics of Conditional Models

200 papers

The conditional extremes (CE) framework has proven useful for analysing the joint tail behaviour of random vectors. However, when applied across many locations or variables, it can be difficult to interpret or compare the resulting extremal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-24 Patrick O'Toole , Christian Rohrbeck , Jordan Richards

In this paper we develop new extremal principles in variational analysis that deal with finite and infinite systems of convex and nonconvex sets. The results obtained, unified under the name of tangential extremal principles, combine primal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2011-01-24 Boris S. Mordukhovich , Hung M. Phan

Superstatistics describes nonequilibrium steady states as superpositions of canonical ensembles with a probability distribution of temperatures. Rather than assume a certain distribution of temperature, recently [J. Phys. A: Math. Theor.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-10-28 Sergio Davis

Understanding multivariate extreme events play a crucial role in managing the risks of complex systems since extremes are governed by their own mechanisms. Conditional on a given variable exceeding a high threshold (e.g.\ traffic…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-28 Valentin Courgeau , Almut E. D. Veraart

A network evolution with predicted tail and extremal indices of PageRank and the Max-Linear Model used as node influence indices in random graphs is considered. The tail index shows a heaviness of the distribution tail. The extremal index…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-28 Natalia Markovich

The core arguments used in various proofs of the extremal principle and its extensions as well as in primal and dual characterizations of approximate stationarity and transversality of collections of sets are exposed, analyzed and refined,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-06-17 Hoa T. Bui , Alexander Y. Kruger

In recent years, parametric models for max-stable processes have become a popular choice for modeling spatial extremes because they arise as the asymptotic limit of rescaled maxima of independent and identically distributed random…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-14 Carolin Forster , Marco Oesting

Extreme value theory offers a statistical framework for quantifying the risk of rare events, with the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution providing the canonical limit model for univariate threshold exceedances. In many applications,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Mirco Lescart , Anna Kiriliouk , Philippe Naveau

We address the problem of prediction for extreme observations by proposing an extremal linear prediction method. We construct an inner product space of nonnegative random variables derived from transformed-linear combinations of independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Jeongjin Lee , Daniel Cooley

Arnold and Arvanitis (2020) introduced a novel bivariate conditionally specified distribution, a distribution in which dependence between two random variables is established by defining the distribution of one variable conditional on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Jared N. Lakhani

The estimation of the extremal dependence structure is spoiled by the impact of the bias, which increases with the number of observations used for the estimation. Already known in the univariate setting, the bias correction procedure is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-04-03 Anne-Laure Fougères , Laurens de Haan , Cécile Mercadier

We revisit the model of heteroscedastic extremes initially introduced by Einmahl et al. (JRSSB, 2016) to describe the evolution of a non stationary sequence whose extremes evolve over time and adapt it into a general extreme quantile…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-06 Benjamin Bobbia , Clément Dombry , Davit Varron

Consider a high-dimensional linear regression problem, where the number of covariates is larger than the number of observations and the interest is in estimating the conditional variance of the response variable given the covariates. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-29 David Azriel

When analyzing time-to-event data, it often happens that some subjects do not experience the event of interest. Survival models that take this feature into account (called `cure models') have been developed in the presence of covariates.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-19 Mikael Escobar-Bach , Ingrid Van Keilegom

Statistical methods for inference on spatial extremes of large datasets are yet to be developed. Motivated by standard dimension reduction techniques used in spatial statistics, we propose an approach based on empirical basis functions to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-02 Samuel A. Morris , Brian J. Reich , Emeric Thibaud

Extreme value applications commonly employ regression techniques to capture cross-sectional heterogeneity or time-variation in the data. Estimation of the parameters of an extreme value regression model is notoriously challenging due to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-12 Debbie J. Dupuis , Sebastian Engelke , Luca Trapin

We give conditions to prove the existence of an Extremal Index for general stationary stochastic processes by detecting the presence of one or more underlying periodic phenomena. This theory, besides giving general useful tools to identify…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-20 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mike Todd

This paper unifies and extends results on a class of multivariate Extreme Value (EV) models studied by Hougaard, Crowder, and Tawn. In these models both unconditional and conditional distributions are EV, and all lower-dimensional marginals…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-09-30 Anne-Laure Fougères , John P. Nolan , Holger Rootzén

We re-visit tail the index regressions framework. For linear specifications, we find that the usual full rank condition can fail because conditioning on extreme outcomes causes regressors to degenerate to constants. Taking this into…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-23 Thomas T. Yang

This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-25 Laura Liu , Yulong Wang