Related papers: Extremal Characteristics of Conditional Models
Let $(X,Y)$ be a bivariate random vector. The estimation of a probability of the form $P(Y\leq y \mid X >t) $ is challenging when $t$ is large, and a fruitful approach consists in studying, if it exists, the limiting conditional…
Certain causal models involving unmeasured variables induce no independence constraints among the observed variables but imply, nevertheless, inequality contraints on the observed distribution. This paper derives a general formula for such…
Consider two stationary time series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions. We aim to detect whether they have a causal relation, that is, if a change in one causes a change in the other. Usual methods for causal discovery are not well…
Mathematical models of the real world are simplified representations of complex systems. A caveat to using mathematical models is that predicted causal effects and conditional independences may not be robust under model extensions, limiting…
We consider a model for multivariate data with heavy-tailed marginal distributions and a Gaussian dependence structure. The different marginals in the model are allowed to have non-identical tail behavior in contrast to most popular…
Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…
Extreme events occur across the natural, engineering, and socioeconomic sciences, where rare but high-impact episodes can lead to disproportionate consequences that pose major challenges for prediction and risk management. Existing studies…
Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme…
Extreme values geostatistics make it possible to model the asymptotic behaviors of random phenomena which depends on space or time parameters. In this paper, we propose new models of the extremal coefficient within a spatial stationary…
Let $(X,Y)$ be a random vector whose conditional excess probability $\theta(x,y):=P(Y\leq y | X>x)$ is of interest. Estimating this kind of probability is a delicate problem as soon as $x$ tends to be large, since the conditioning event…
It is well known that the distribution of extreme values of strictly stationary sequences differ from those of independent and identically distributed sequences in that extremal clustering may occur. Here we consider non-stationary but…
Understanding the spatial extent of extreme precipitation is necessary for determining flood risk and adequately designing infrastructure (e.g., stormwater pipes) to withstand such hazards. While environmental phenomena typically exhibit…
We propose an extension of the regular Cox's proportional hazards model which allows the estimation of the probabilities of rare events. It is known that when the data are heavily censored at the upper end of the survival distribution, the…
Recently, the concept of tail dependence has been discussed in financial applications related to market or credit risk. The multivariate extreme value theory is a proper tool to measure and model dependence, for example, of large loss…
Max-stable processes are widely used to model spatial extremes. These processes exhibit asymptotic dependence meaning that the large values of the process can occur simultaneously over space. Recently, inverted max-stable processes have…
The aim of this paper is to provide models for spatial extremes in the case of stationarity. The spatial dependence at extreme levels of a stationary process is modeled using an extension of the theory of max-stable processes of de Haan and…
Conditional independence, graphical models and sparsity are key notions for parsimonious statistical models and for understanding the structural relationships in the data. The theory of multivariate and spatial extremes describes the risk…
A successful model for high-dimensional spatial extremes should, in principle, be able to describe both weakening extremal dependence at increasing levels and changes in the type of extremal dependence class as a function of the distance…
We define a new multivariate time series model by generalizing the ARMAX process in a multivariate way. We give conditions on stationarity and analyze local dependence and domains of attraction. As a consequence of the obtained result, we…
Extreme-value copulas arise in the asymptotic theory for componentwise maxima of independent random samples. An extreme-value copula is determined by its Pickands dependence function, which is a function on the unit simplex subject to…